Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s recovery stalls, region headed for a downturn in Q4 Russia’s economy lost steam at the end of Q3 amid a contraction in consumer spending and the next stage of the recovery will be harder given the hit to incomes, weak investment and tight fiscal policy... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle will resume before long The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate at 4.25% today suggests that inflationary concerns are preventing further easing for now. But the communications reinforce our view that... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA QE to involve volume rather than yield target The minutes of the latest meeting all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will launch quantitative easing at its upcoming meeting in November. While we previously argued that the RBA... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation dropped to zero September, and we think it be negative over the coming months before hovering around zero throughout most of next year. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The further easing in headline and underlying inflation in Q3 are consistent with our view that weak inflation will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates into negative territory next year. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Weak recoveries, default risks still high Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been... 22nd October 2020 · 22 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB focused on how, rather than if, ECB loosens again We think that Swiss policymakers would be prepared to match any small interest rate cut by the ECB, albeit reluctantly. However, if policymakers in the euro-zone opt to ease policy in other ways, as... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery suffers a setback Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more... 22nd October 2020 · 28 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Second lockdown fears weigh on equities The growing risk of a second national UK lockdown has spooked equity markets over the last week. We already expect the recovery to stall in Q4 and additional COVID-19 restrictions could easily throw... 22nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka on hold for now, more easing next year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left both its deposit and lending rate on hold at 4.50% and 5.50% respectively at its meeting today but, given the poor outlook for the economy, we think the... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook An uphill struggle The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so... 21st October 2020 · 26 mins read
India Chart Pack Reasons for caution despite drop in virus cases New COVID-19 cases in India have dropped significantly over the past month. Encouragingly, the share of tests returning positive has also dropped, indicating that the improvement in test results... 21st October 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How much QE will the RBA deliver? The RBA’s assets will rise further over the coming months as banks draw down funding under the TFF. But so will the assets of other central banks. If the Bank wanted to catch up with the advanced... 21st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to maintain expansionary status quo The Bank of Japan may revise down its GDP growth and inflation forecasts slightly at the upcoming meeting. However, we doubt it will respond with additional policy easing. Its assets are already... 21st October 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Negative interest rates – will they or won’t they? 20th October 2020 · 7 mins read
