UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling’s swings leave more downside than upside The recent swings in sterling triggered by shifts in sentiment towards the chances of a Brexit deal have left little room for the pound to appreciate if there’s a deal, but plenty of room for it to... 16th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus Our key calls for 2021 The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India will brighten the economic outlook next year, but India’s recovery will still be one of the weakest among major economies. One consequence is... 16th December 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Nov.) China’s economy continued to accelerate across all fronts in November. We expect output to remain above-trend in the coming quarters, even as tailwinds from stimulus and exports start to ease. 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy carried a lot of momentum into the start of Q4 but the recent tightening of virus containment measures... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB not out of the woods yet As well as being a game-changer for economic prospects next year, the positive news on the vaccine front has also helped to ease the upward pressure on the Swiss franc against the euro. The franc... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Will households spend the extra money they have saved? One of the biggest upside risks to our forecasts is that households spend the extra savings that they have accumulated during the past few months. If they do, North America and the UK look likely to... 11th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat, EU compromise, CEE inflation The possibility of the US and EU imposing sanctions on Turkey has increased this week and a further escalation of tensions could undermine the gains from the recent shift to more orthodox economic... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rating downgrades & pushback by the RBNZ While the credit rating downgrade of Victoria and New South Wales is justified given the deterioration in their fiscal outlook, we suspect that the RBA will continue to keep a lid on states’ borrowing... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB extends implicit yield curve control The ECB’s message that it will persist with its flexible asset purchase programme until at least early 2022 should reassure investors that there will not be a reversal of the compression of bond... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch No further stimulus, unless there is a no deal Brexit The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 17 th December should be less eventful than the last one. Indeed, if our more optimistic economic forecasts are even close to being right... 10th December 2020 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch No further stimulus, unless there is a no deal Brexit The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 17 th December should be less eventful than the last one. Indeed, if our more optimistic economic forecasts are even close to being right... 10th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to extend lending programmes With the ongoing wave of infections in Japan the most severe yet, the Bank of Japan will probably extend its lending facilities beyond March 2021 at the upcoming meeting. But we don’t expect it to... 10th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank will probably stick to implicit yield curve control The key change to the Bank of Canada’s policy statement today was its commitment to “keep interest rates low across the yield curve”. This is in line with our view that, even as the economy rebounds... 9th December 2020 · 3 mins read
