UK Economics Chart Pack A heavy January hangover for trade After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19... 3rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may extend QE one more time We are more upbeat about the outlook for the economy than the Reserve Bank of Australia. But the RBA seems keen to err on the side of caution. With the latest extension of its QE programme already... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect loose monetary policy to keep a lid on bond yields The RBA’s decision earlier today to extend its bond purchases, despite considerable improvement in the economic outlook, is just the latest sign that major central banks are likely to take a much more... 2nd February 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may end QE by mid-year The RBA today upgraded its labour market forecasts but noted that the recovery remained dependent on “significant fiscal and monetary support”. Indeed, the Bank extended its Bond Purchase Program by... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation on the rise The jump in consumer prices in Q4 largely reflects price hikes for items whose prices are set by the government. Even so, underlying inflation is holding up better than we and the RBA had anticipated... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry’s balancing act, RBI’s opportunity For India watchers, next week will be one of the most important of the year. We think the Finance Ministry will attempt to demonstrate prudence in the Union Budget on Monday, though obfuscation of the... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank unlikely to pull forward rate hike plans The Bank of Canada has signalled that it will wait until 2023 to raise interest rates and, despite our stronger forecasts for GDP growth, there are a few reasons why we expect it to stick to this... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Third lockdown unlikely to prompt more QE or negative rates The prospect of a rapid recovery in GDP in the second half of the year and a rebound in inflation to 2% suggests that the third COVID-19 lockdown won’t prompt the Monetary Policy Committee to launch a... 28th January 2021 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA shakeup, UAE banks, latest on COVID-19 The change of governor at the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) adds to the signs that the government will lean more heavily on SAMA to support its efforts to diversify investments and the Saudi economy... 28th January 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s Powell strikes dovish tone despite vaccines The Fed acknowledged in its post-FOMC meeting statement today that the economic recovery weakened in the final couple of months of last year, but balanced that near-term pessimism with greater... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the risks to Treasuries from future tapering It seems very unlikely that the FOMC will unnerve the bond market later today by signalling a tapering of its asset purchases (see here). But even when the time for such an announcement does come, we... 27th January 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Inflation expectations unlikely to lift gilt yields much 10-year gilt yields haven’t been significantly dragged higher by 10-year US Treasury yields because, unlike their US counterparts, break-even inflation rates in the UK have not been boosted by... 27th January 2021 · 8 mins read
RBI Watch Don’t rule out a rate cut Financial markets and analysts appear convinced that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday 5 th February, but we aren’t so sure. We think the recent sharp... 27th January 2021 · 6 mins read
