Long Run Focus Another decade of negative real interest rates The equilibrium level of real interest rates in the global economy may not remain quite as low as of late, but we expect any rise to be gradual and small. With policymakers at the same time taking a... 24th February 2021 · 28 mins read
RBA Watch Policy to remain looser for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd March and will probably push back against mounting expectations of policy tightening. 24th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Pessimistic RBNZ set to be surprised The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sounded dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to begin increasing rates next year. 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Oil sector strength mitigating weakness elsewhere The pandemic has thrown up many surprises for the Canadian economy, the latest of which is the speed at which oil production has rebounded. Even though global fuel demand remains weak amid ongoing... 23rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest rate hikes are a long way off The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting – in which interest rates were left unchanged – show that the MPC remains cautious on the inflation outlook but that it is also committed to... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wider tolerance band wouldn’t signal tighter policy The Bank of Japan is likely to widen the tolerance band around its 10-year yield target next month. The last time this happened, many saw it – wrongly in our view – as a form of policy tightening. It... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but PBOC more hawkish Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged on Saturday. But monetary conditions have tightened in practice since the start of the year. We expect the PBOC to formalise the shift with... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish CBRT suggests Turkish lira may appreciate further The hawkish statement accompanying today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to keep its one-week repo rate on hold at 17.0% supports our view that the rally in the lira has further to run... 18th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Challenges of big central bank balance sheets are manageable One legacy of the pandemic is a huge expansion in central banks’ balance sheets. Fears that this will automatically boost inflation are overdone. So, too, are worries that central banks will provoke a... 17th February 2021 · 25 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to start raising rates later this year We forecast the Norges Bank to be the first advanced central bank to begin raising interest rates, in the second half of this year. This will further bolster the krone, which we expect to be the best... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch Bank to continue unwinding stimulus Economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have shown the New Zealand economy recovering at a remarkable pace. The case for further monetary stimulus is therefore weak. As such, we expect the Bank... 17th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The continued surge in growth of narrow measures of the money supply underline that the economy is awash with liquidity, but that will not trigger a surge in price inflation when growth in the broader... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
