Asia Economics Update Taiwan: no rush to hike rates despite rapid recovery Taiwan’s central bank appears in little hurry to raise interest rates despite the strong performance of the economy, and today’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.125% came as no... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: little prospect of rate hikes Recent volatility in financial markets meant Bank Indonesia (BI) was never likely to cut interest rates for a second consecutive month at its meeting today, and further rate cuts look off the agenda... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Tunisia heading for a debt restructuring Tunisia’s public finances have deteriorated further during the COVID-19 crisis and, with the government unlikely to be able to push through much-needed fiscal austerity, a debt restructuring looks... 18th March 2021 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The surge in employment in February is consistent with our view that the Australian labour market is tightening much faster than most expect. 18th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lending standards remain sound Housing finance commitments have surged in recent months pointing to a rise in credit growth before long. But we don’t think lending standards have been eroded so this shouldn’t stop the RBA from... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does Turkey need to do to bring inflation down? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) looks set to hike interest rates further this week, and the experience from other EMs suggests that it will need to keep real interest rates elevated for several years to... 15th March 2021 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in February to a two-year high will do little to dampen growing market expectations of rate hikes in the very near future. However, we still... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus The 14th Five-Year Plan China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers... 15th March 2021 · 27 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA underlines determination to keep policy loose The Reserve Bank of Australia this week pushed back against mounting expectations of policy tightening both via its market operations as well as via a dovish speech by Governor Lowe. We reiterate our... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Markets are jumping the gun on RBI rate hikes Financial markets appear increasingly convinced that the RBI is on the cusp of monetary tightening, perhaps due to fears of a re-run of the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But India isn’t as vulnerable to a... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
BoE Watch Rising gilt yields won’t push Bank of England into action Given the improving economic outlook, we doubt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will respond to higher gilt yields by stepping up the pace of its QE purchases at its next meeting on Thursday 18 th... 11th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of EM rate hikes? Recent currency falls and rises in inflation have all but guaranteed interest rate hikes in Turkey and Brazil next week, and Russia’s central bank is likely to lay the groundwork for tightening too... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank likely to defer widening of tolerance band The pendulum seems to have swung back against the Bank of Japan making any changes to its yield target next week or indeed any major changes at all. That is most likely because the Bank doesn’t want... 11th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation now too strong for the CBR to ignore A series of strong inflation readings in Russia have put the central bank’s ability to meet its inflation target over the next year under threat and brought forward the prospect of monetary tightening... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lowe lifts bar for policy tightening further Today’s dovish speech by RBA Governor Lowe supports our view that the RBA is set to keep monetary policy accommodative for a long time to come. But concerns about the functioning of the bond market... 10th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Lula ruling, Brazil’s debt problem and the BCB The annulment of left-wing former President Lula’s criminal convictions has significantly increased the likelihood of a looser fiscal stance, which could put Brazil’s public debt back onto an... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
