Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates to remain at 0.5% for foreseeable future The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold at 0.5% today and made clear in its accompanying statement that rates will stay low for the foreseeable future. We think the that the policy rate... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What next for inflation? A rise in headline consumer price inflation over the coming months will do little to temper growing market expectations of imminent rate hikes. But it will largely be driven by fuel price inflation... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to cut the pace of its asset purchases next month The Bank of Canada seems to have signalled that it will reduce the pace of its government bond purchases at its next meeting in April. We now expect it to bring its net purchases to zero by the end of... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Direction shifting towards tightening in Hungary Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its key interest rates on hold today but the tone of the communications could not have been much more hawkish without raising interest rates. The MNB is defending its... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: hawkish minority unlikely to become majority Policymakers in Nigeria opted to keep their benchmark rate unchanged at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting in the face of rising inflation and a weak recovery. We don’t think that a hawkish minority will... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold, PBOC signals preference for other tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged today. We have been forecasting the PBOC to hike rates this year but the likelihood of that is diminishing – the PBOC appears to favour... 22nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan sacks Agbal, risk of currency crisis grows The shock decision by Turkey’s President Erdogan to sack central bank governor Naci Agbal late on Friday is likely to trigger large falls in the lira when markets open on Monday. It looks like the... 20th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB will be in no rush to tighten policy South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to be in a rush to follow other EM central banks in tightening monetary policy. We think the policy rate will be on hold this year and probably in 2022... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ rearranges furniture to prepare for prolonged hold The Bank of Japan’s policy review today contained various nudges to policy levers but ultimately marked neither a tightening nor an easing of policy. Governor Kuroda was keen to emphasise in the press... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market doesn’t mean RBA will tighten The stronger than expected labour market data will have been a nice surprise to the RBA with the unemployment rate now below its year-end forecast. But we had always expected the unemployment rate to... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Renewed virus outbreak a key downside risk The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a three-month high this week does not appear to be a major threat to India's economy yet as cases are still comparatively low and the outbreak has predominantly... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the steepening US real yield curve The renewed sell-off in the Treasury market since the conclusion of yesterday’s FOMC meeting may seem hard to square with the message that monetary policy is likely to remain very loose for a long... 18th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank unlikely to flinch as inflation moves above target We expect inflation to hit 3.5% in April and then to sit at the upper end of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range for most of the rest of the year. Given the likelihood that inflation will drop... 18th March 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update No pushback against higher gilt yields, but little prospect of rate hikes The Monetary Policy Committee did not follow in the ECB’s footsteps by stepping up the pace of its QE purchases. Instead, it echoed the message of the Fed by emphasising that rate hikes are still a... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT overdelivers to reassure investors Turkey’s central bank didn’t disappoint investors, delivering a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike (to 19.00%) today, and we think that it will keep monetary conditions tighter than most... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s tightening cycle likely to be sharp but short The Brazilian central bank’s 75bp hike in the Selic rate (to 2.75%) and hawkish statement point to a front-loaded tightening cycle in the coming months. We now expect a further 200bp of hikes (to 4.75... 18th March 2021 · 15 mins read
