Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation peaks, tightening cycle nearing end Consumer price inflation in Korea increased to a new 24-year high last month, but we think it has now peaked. With headwinds to the economy mounting, we believe that the central bank’s tightening... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut interest rates next year The Reserve Bank of Australia revised up its inflation forecasts sharply when it lifted the cash rate by 50bp today and we expect it to hike rates more aggressively over coming months than most... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (June) In June, the number of unemployed people rose in the euro-zone for the first time in 14 months. Nevertheless, we expect the labour market to remain tight even as the economy heads into recession... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys point to slower GDP growth The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer in July – to a post-pandemic low – shows that the jump in borrowing costs is hitting more than just the housing market. With the survey still pointing to... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new superministry, Chile minutes The appointment of Sergio Massa as head of Argentina’s newly-created economic “superministry” provides some hope that the government will stick to its latest IMF deal but, even so, meeting the Fund’s... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed hikes as GDP sinks The second-quarter decline in GDP was not quite as bad as it looked, and with the Fed sounding increasingly comfortable with continuing to raise interest rates through a period of weak economic growth... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia cuts gas supplies, signs of slowdown mount The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt yields to rebound, economics point a Lionesses win If our forecasts that Bank Rate will rise to 3.00% and that high inflation will prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates during the coming recession both prove right, then 10-year gilt... 29th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget pain, SA's latest electricity plan Data published by Nigeria’s Budget Office this week highlighted that, despite what should be a favourable high oil price environment, the public finances are actually getting worse. With the... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for US markets We still expect a higher 10-year Treasury yield, lower S&P 500 and stronger US dollar over the remainder of the year, but have pared back our forecasts for the rise in yields and fall in equities. In... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Fall in gilt yields won’t last, equities to trough sooner Given our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.25% now to a peak of 3.00%, we still think that gilt yields have further to rise. However, with attention in the markets... 29th July 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target dropped, property rescue plans The Politburo this week quietly abandoned the GDP growth target while promising to support the property sector and ensure that stalled projects are completed. The immediate goal is to boost confidence... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gazprom turns the screws Gazprom’s announcement this week that it is reducing the supply of gas through Nord Stream 1 to only a fifth of its normal capacity has pushed European natural gas prices up once again and threatens... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nordic footballing woes; Record loss for SNB The 4-nil semi-final defeat at the hands of England on Tuesday will do nothing to bolster consumer confidence in Sweden, which is sinking faster than the boats that Freya the walrus climbed onto this... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly “Build, Build, Build” is back, better news on inflation The president of the Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., earlier this week pledged to resume the “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. While... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022) The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
