India Chart Pack The geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lowe unlikely to be reappointed as RBA Governor The recommendations by the RBA’s review panel unveiled today were broadly in line with what we had anticipated. While the 2-3% inflation target will be retained, sweeping changes to the Bank’s... 20th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2023) Although inflation in Q1 was below what the RBNZ had expected, we don’t expect the Bank to take its foot off the brakes just yet. Indeed, with non-tradables prices continuing to rise at a rapid clip... 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 23) 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Persistent UK inflation unlikely to preclude lower Gilt yields While we think investors are correct to price in more persistent UK inflation, we think a sharp decline in core inflation next year will allow the Bank of England to cut rates by more than most expect... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our Treasury and S&P 500 forecasts We think investors’ expectations for the Fed funds rate will fall a little by the end of this year, which will push the 10-year Treasury yield a bit lower by end-2023. But we doubt lower “risk-free”... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South Africa’s headline inflation reading for March came in stronger than expected, at 7.1% y/y, and core inflation remains uncomfortably high for policymakers at the Reserve Bank. With persistent... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem pushes back against rate cut expectations Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem used his press conference this week to push back against expectations for interest rate cuts later this year. That partly reflects the Bank’s less downbeat... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation strong, but activity weakening The strength of the March CPI data may be enough to persuade the Fed to squeeze in a final 25bp rate hike at the early-May FOMC meeting. But with mounting evidence that economic growth is weakening... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Easing supply constraints supporting activity The latest official activity data suggest that the euro-zone economy posted a small expansion in Q1, and we expect April’s PMIs, published next week, to be consistent with continued growth. The... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS keeps policy settings on hold as economy contracts The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy on hold today and with the economy set to struggle and inflation likely to fall sharply over the coming quarters we expect today’s decision to... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
