Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Aggressive tightening will be reversed next year The RBA lifted rates by 50bp today and dropped some hints that further tightening will be less aggressive. Even so, we still expect the Bank to hike rates more aggressively over coming months than... 6th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting (Sep. 2022) 6th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EZ peripheral spreads will rise further We continue to expect euro-zone “peripheral” spreads to rise over the remainder of the year, owing to a combination of deteriorating appetite for risk, higher policy rates, and ambiguity about the ECB... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Egypt answered Egypt is facing growing external strains and downward pressure on the pound, with policymaking coming under increased scrutiny in recent weeks following the sudden resignation of central bank governor... 5th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: slowing growth bigger concern than inflation Inflation and activity data published over the past few days have surprised to the downside, supporting our view that Korea’s tightening cycle will finish by the end of the year. 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The slower pace of payroll gains in August, together with the big rebound in the labour force, and the more modest increase in wages, would seem to favour a smaller 50bp rate hike from the Fed next... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Thomas Jordan: Swiss inflation-wrestling champion In the week when Joel Wicki was crowned “Schwingen King” in the national Swiss wrestling championships, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan used his speech at Jackson Hole to reiterate his intention to grapple... 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury and bund sell off may be mostly over While US and euro-zone 10-year government bond yields have surged over recent weeks, we think this sell-off has mostly run its course – we expect these yields to end this year a bit below their... 2nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly GDP oddities, a long-term view of the rupee We’ve revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2022 following the weaker-than-expected data for Q2. But with policymakers appearing comfortable with the health of the economy, we aren’t inclined to... 2nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB has some catch-up to do, starting with 75bp hike There is a case for the ECB to raise rates by 1% next week. But that would probably be too much for many policymakers to bear, so we expect them to step up the pace of tightening with a 75bp hike. It... 1st September 2022 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch 75 bp hike despite slowing economy GDP growth and inflation will be lower than the Bank of Canada anticipated this quarter, but the odds still seem to favour a 75bp policy rate hike next week to 3.25%. The risks to our forecast that... 1st September 2022 · 7 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI moderated a touch in August but the more important point is that the reading is still consistent with robust growth in the sector. The RBI will remain comfortable tightening... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Prospect of more ECB hikes may not push up yields or the euro Even if investors continue to raise their near-term expectations for the ECB deposit rate, we doubt this will push up long-dated euro-zone yields or help the euro recover against the US dollar. 31st August 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Political rollercoasters across the region Relatively peaceful election proceedings in Kenya and Angola this month have provided a lift to investor sentiment. But with the respective losing presidential candidates challenging official results... 31st August 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Hawkish central banks may still be still a headwind for EMs We think developed market (DM) monetary policy may be a threat to emerging market (EM) assets for some time yet. Note: Join our EM team on Thursday, 1 st September for their latest monthly online... 31st August 2022 · 8 mins read
