Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank hasn’t finished “front-loading" Even after raising its policy rate by 100bp today, the Riksbank signalled that its tightening cycle has some way to go. We expect another large hike at its final meeting of the year in November... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What would a policy shift do for China’s markets? The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Peak rates likely to be lower in Canada We still expect the peak in interest rates to be markedly lower in Canada than the US, as household debt is a lot higher, labour market conditions are weaker and there is scope for a much bigger drop... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation divergence, Turkey’s BoP puzzle The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, slow recovery in Sri Lanka The continued weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen 15% against the US dollar since the start of the year, has become a growing concern for policymakers and is another reason to think the... 16th September 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker growth will bear down on inflation soon The economic data this week suggest that slowing activity growth isn’t yet putting downward pressure on core inflation, which is likely to see the Fed remain in hawkish mode at its meeting next week... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Weak RMB inhibits easing, consumption takes a hit The PBOC has been trying to offer support to the economy this week without lowering its policy rates, but a desire to stabilise the exchange rate constrains what it can do. That’s a problem for the... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More evidence of stagflation, but no gas price cap yet Figures released this week brought yet more evidence that the euro-zone is heading for recession. But given that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong, we doubt that will stop the ECB from... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stable inflation expectations little comfort for Riksbank Even as Swedish headline inflation surged again in August, with the core rate hitting its highest level since late 1991, the stability of long-term inflation expectations will provide some comfort to... 16th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 22) 16th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will deliver another 50bp rate hike RBA Governor Lowe reiterated today that the Bank will slow the pace of tightening at some point. But his hawkish comments on the health of consumer spending and the labour market suggest that this... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stealth intervention would be costly With the yen falling to a 24-year low against the dollar, the government this week requested exchange rate quotes from the banks which some see as a precursor to intervention. Apart from the Ministry... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What are UK OIS really telling us about future BoE policy? Even more caution than usual should be exercised when using UK overnight indexed swap rates to infer the expected path of Bank Rate over the next couple of years. This is because they have risen by... 15th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Peak inflation and the prospects for equities Although we think this week’s disappointing CPI report in the US is just a bump on the road towards much lower inflation, and that today’s rather disappointing news on retail sales and industrial... 15th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Bumper rate hikes on the way Next week, we expect the Swiss National Bank, Riksbank and Norges Bank to raise interest rates aggressively. The SNB and the Riksbank both look set to raise rates by 75bp, and we would not rule out a... 15th September 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Our new interest rate forecast – a peak of 4.00% After fully adjusting our economic forecasts to take account of what is shaping up to be a big fiscal expansion, we now think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.75% currently to a... 15th September 2022 · 7 mins read
