India Economics Weekly FX reserves remain more than adequate The drop in FX reserves to the lowest level in almost two years has raised concerns in some quarters that the RBI’s policy of FX intervention to slow the depreciation of the rupee is not sustainable... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning point for inflation has been reached While the exchange rate has only played a minor role in the surge in “core” goods inflation to a record-high, the further depreciation of the Australian dollar over the past month will tilt the... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s policymakers have bought the yen some time We think FX intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), if sustained, will be enough to prevent much further depreciation in the yen against the dollar until downward pressure from widening... 22nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Hawkish majority to rule the SARB for some time Today’s decision in South Africa to raise the benchmark rate by 75bp, to 6.25%, despite weakness in the economy suggests that policymakers are prioritising tackling inflation above all else. We think... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE oil capacity, Egypt FX restrictions, Saudi-rupee trade The UAE is seeking to raise oil production capacity more aggressively than previously planned as it aims to get ahead of peak oil demand and capture oil market share. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia also... 22nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB deposit rate to hit 3% next year The strength and breadth of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone, together with policymakers’ determination to bring inflation down, has prompted us to revise our interest rate forecasts up. We now... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Govt’s fiscal plans to force the Bank to hike rates to 4.00% The hawkish 50 basis point (bps) hike in interest rates today, from 1.75% to 2.25%, was partly driven by the government’s plans to dramatically loosen fiscal policy and supports our view that the Bank... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) The stronger-than-expected Mexican inflation figure of 8.8% y/y in the first two weeks of September, coming alongside the hawkish Fed decision yesterday, means that we now think Banxico will raise... 22nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (22nd Sep.) 22nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (22nd Sep.) 22nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) 22nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: gradual tightening cycle ahead Taiwan’s central bank today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bp (to 1.625%), and with inflation easing and growth set to struggle, further tightening is likely to be gradual. 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update New policy rate forecasts for Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) today raised interest rates by a further 50bp (to 4.25%) and signalled that more tightening was likely as it aims to support the currency and clamp down on rising inflation. We are... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Staying the course, for now We expect the MPC to continue frontloading policy tightening with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Friday 30th September. Beyond next week, we... 22nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More tightening to come from the Norges Bank Following today’s 50bp increase, we think the Norges Bank is most likely to hike by 50bp again in November. But its tightening cycle will soon be over, with the policy rate peaking at around 3%. 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
