Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike all the way to 4.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked the overnight cash rate by 50bp to 3.5% as widely anticipated and the hawkish tone of the statement is consistent with our forecast that rates will peak at 4.5%... 5th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (Oct. 22) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Retreat in bond yields may be a little premature Despite the recent retreat in expectations for interest rates – which seems to be a key driver on the big bounce in equities this week so far – we still expect most major central banks to maintain... 4th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Multiple challenges raise risk of policy errors Recent developments have made a bad situation worse for central banks and what was already a challenging environment has become even more challenging. Not only is inflation proving more persistent... 4th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Looser policy on the cards before long The Reserve Bank of Australia slowed the pace of monetary tightening by delivering a smaller 25bp rate hike to 2.60% this month, but we still expect rates to peak a touch higher than most anticipate... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Oct. 22) 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI stays the course with another 75bp rate hike The Bank of Israel delivered another 75bp interest rate hike to 2.75% today and while the accompanying communications were not particularly hawkish, it’s clear that the tightening cycle is far from... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack PBOC’s proxies ready to fight It has been five years since the People’s Bank last dipped into its own foreign exchange reserves on a significant scale to support the currency. Since then, it is widely believed that the exchange... 3rd October 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE central banks treading a difficult path Central banks in Central Europe are attempting to draw their tightening cycles to a close, but they are treading a difficult path given the strength of inflation and mounting downward pressure on... 30th September 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Five ways the gov’t-induced turmoil has altered our thinking We don’t know yet if the PM and Chancellor installed just three weeks ago will survive the crisis. But the legacy of the Chancellor’s mini-budget on 23 rd September and the resulting events of this... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record immigration won’t make the Bank’s job easier The accepted wisdom is that strong immigration reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, as it will eventually help to ease labour shortages. But the immediate impact has... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate easing, ominous signs for exporters Officials are giving banks more room to lower mortgage rates by relaxing regulatory controls. We doubt this will be sufficient to put a floor under home sales. But alongside efforts to prop up the... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Current account deficit to widen further India’s current account recorded its largest deficit in three years in Q2 and it will remain wide by recent standards over the coming quarters, which will keep the rupee on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico and BanRep to remain in hawkish mood Central banks in Mexico and Colombia delivered further large interest rates hikes yesterday, of 75bp and 100bp respectively, and the backdrop of strong inflation pressures and tighter external... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI frontloads again but pace of tightening set to slow The RBI hiked the repo rate by another 50bp (to 5.90%) today and the communications give a clear steer that the tightening cycle still has further to run. But with inflation set to slow, we think the... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
