Canada Economics Update The end of the tightening cycle? The Bank of Canada delivered a somewhat dovish 50bp rate hike today, by softening its explicit forward guidance that interest rates will need to rise further. Our GDP and inflation forecasts suggest... 7th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Peak in rates coming into view The Fed is set to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Chair Jerome Powell will seek to ensure the move isn’t interpreted as a dovish ‘pivot’, and the Fed’s new... 7th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation peaking, but long road back to target Headline inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will peak in most countries in the next few months, at around 20% y/y, and should fall to single-digits across the region by end-2023. But we... 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle drawing to a close The RBI slowed the pace of monetary tightening with a 35bp hike to the repo rate (to 6.25%) and, with headline inflation set to ease further and growth entering a softer patch, we think the central... 7th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Why this might have been another false start for the S&P 500 Although the 10-year Treasury yield has already dropped by roughly 60bp since the release of October’s CPI report on 10th November, we still see scope for it to end 2023 a bit lower than its current... 6th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not backing away from rate hikes just yet The RBA today hiked the cash rate by 25bp as widely anticipated and while the statement was marginally less hawkish, we’re sticking to our view that the Bank will lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 22) 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings – A pivotal year for policy ends 1671116400 The last big central bank decisions of 2022 resulted in another batch of hefty rate hikes – if smaller than recent – but also provided important signals about the direction of policymaking in the c
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Global downturn will drag Japan into recession The global downturn will pull Japan into recession next year. And with government caps on utility bills pushing inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-2023, the Bank will remain the... 5th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and policymaking in SA: stirred or shaken? South Africa’s political turmoil that severely endangered President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position has already shaken the country’s financial markets. In part, this is related to the prospect of the... 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP revisions unlikely to change things for the Bank The national accounts data provided two pieces of good news this week, with revisions to the historical series and stronger-than-expected third-quarter growth leaving GDP higher than expected. While... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
