Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and BoE June meetings 15th June 2023, 3:00PM BST What will major advanced economy central banks decide at their June meetings, and how will those decisions be messaged? In this special briefing, Paul Ashworth, Andrew Kenningham and Paul Dales, our…
Europe Economics Update TLTRO redemptions to reduce banks’ liquidity More than €1trn of TLTROs will be redeemed over the next eighteen months, significantly reducing euro-zone banks’ liquidity and pushing up their funding costs as they adjust their balance sheets... 7th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2023) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.9% y/y in May, alongside the government’s new fiscal framework, has strengthened the arguments in favour of near-term monetary easing. But with inflation set to... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira Signs that newly re-elected Turkish president Erdogan is willing to move away from unorthodox economic policies has led to an increase in investor optimism towards his country. These developments are... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cash rate of 4.85% will push economy into recession In response to the hawkish shift by RBA Governor Lowe and the further acceleration in unit labour cost growth, we now expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 4.85% by September. That aggressive... 7th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 23) Real GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter as household spending ground to a standstill. However, with productivity falling for a fourth consecutive quarter, unit labour costs grew apace... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to lift cash rate to 4.35%, cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25bp today and the hawkish tone of the statement suggests that the risks to our terminal rate forecast of 4.35% are tilted to the upside. Indeed... 6th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s U-turn: action will speak louder than words Optimism about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Turkey has taken hold following the appointment of Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet this weekend. Recent developments look encouraging... 5th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Why wait? The upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth means there is a rising probability that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again. While the commonly held view seems to be that the Bank will... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andes adjusting, tight job markets in Brazil & Mexico Data out this week suggest that Colombia’s economy has started to undergo an adjustment process, which is set to continue over the course of this year and next and underpins our forecast that growth... 2nd June 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling deal sealed; Fed to skip June T he debt ceiling standoff ended not with a bang but a whimper – as the bill easily passed the House and Senate with comfortable majorities. Although the prospect of a debt ceiling deal briefly... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation falling; Sweden set for recession Data published this week showed that euro-zone core inflation fell for the second consecutive month in May, but it still looks likely that the ECB will raise interest rates again in June and probably... 2nd June 2023 · 12 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy does not make case for tightening The strength of the recent activity data means we are revising up our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.3%, from 6.0%. But given that inflation has come down a long way from its peak last year and is now... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: labour market strength likely to worry Copom The latest data suggest that Brazil’s labour market isn’t softening as quickly as we and many others (not least the central bank) had anticipated. That’s keeping wage growth high and, while that may... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily EZ downside inflation surprise points to more euro weakness While we suspect that interest rate differentials between the euro-zone and the US might start to put a degree of upward pressure on euro-zone government bond yields and the euro, we think that the... 1st June 2023 · 7 mins read
