Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, weak economy The ECB’s messaging this week was hawkish and suggests that the risks are skewed towards the ECB’s deposit rate rising above our forecast to a peak of 3.75%. Recent data support the Bank’s view that... 16th June 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus needed, baby bust continues The initial policy response to the economy’s recent loss of momentum has been to cut interest rates. But on its own, this is unlikely to trigger a jump in household or corporate borrowing and spending... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q3 Outlook, inflation plunge, policy pivot? The overarching message from our Q3 India Outlook is that policy rate cuts will soon come on to the agenda as the economy enters a mild slowdown and inflation settles at comfortable rates over the... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain ultra-loose The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy settings and assessment of the economy unchanged today. As inflation is unlikely to be sustained at or above target for the foreseeable future, we’re still... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation falling but SNB set to hike rates further Policymakers are likely to raise the policy rate by 50bp to 2% next Thursday, despite inflation falling sharply this year. And SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s view that Switzerland’s neutral interest... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Another look at the underperformance of Gilts Although we no longer expect Gilts to outperform in local-currency terms, we do think they’re set to hold up better against Treasuries and Bunds over the rest of this year than they have done lately. 15th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB hikes and signals more to come The ECB raised its deposit rate to 3.5% today and President Lagarde all but promised another hike next month. Our baseline forecast remains that interest rates will peak in July and stay there until... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Rates heading to 5.25% The recent persistence of inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will proceed with another 25 basis point (bps) rise in Bank Rate from 4.50% to 4.75% next Thursday and ultimately raise... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAIBOR surge, CBE meeting, Tunisia-EU loan Saudi Arabia’s interbank rates hit their highest level in over two decades this week and, if officials want to prop up credit growth, the Saudi Central Bank may need to step in once more to provide... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strong wage growth to temper falls in inflation and rates The tightening of labour markets across Latin America in the past year or so has fuelled rapid wage growth in many economies and wage growth is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while yet... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hike and signal higher peak We think the Norges Bank will follow through on its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 3.50%, although there is an outside chance of a 50bp hike. Either way, we think it will push its... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: stage set for rate cut in September Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today kept its main policy rate unchanged (at 1.875%), but with the economy struggling and inflation set to fall further, we expect it to start cutting rates in September. 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed pauses, but eyes 50bp in additional rate hikes As expected, the Fed held its policy rate unchanged at between 5.00% and 5.25% today, but it made clear in the accompanying statement that pause was only to allow officials to “assess additional... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
