Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May) The sharp fall in inflation in May raises the risk that Reserve Bank of Australia will not raise any further at the upcoming meeting in July, but we still think that mounting upside risks to inflation... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Recession or not, growth to disappoint Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 27th June 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Starting gun fires for the EM easing cycle Central bank meetings this month suggest that we’re now on the brink of an EM monetary easing cycle. In China, the Loan Prime Rates were lowered in response to flagging growth. And elsewhere, some... 27th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Strong currencies lend helping hand in inflation fight It’s been a good month for Latin American currencies, particularly the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso, which should help the disinflation process across the region. This is one reason behind... 27th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2023) & Copom Minutes The fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.4% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with the surprisingly dovish tilt on Copom shown in the minutes to the last meeting, have prompted us to... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: The RBA's July meeting and the Australian economic outlook 1688450400 While inflation plunged in May, we still think the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates again at its July meeting – and push the economy even closer towards recession.
Europe Economics Update Don’t lose sleep over Bundesbank losses The Bundesbank may make large losses in the coming years but these will be paper losses only, will have no impact on the government’s fiscal position, and are likely to fall over time. While the... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates as IMF deal nears Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised its policy rate by a further 100bps (to 22%) at a unscheduled monetary policy meeting. We think interest rates will need to remain elevated over the coming... 26th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly July rate hike still looking likely The latest Summary of Deliberations gave no hint about whether the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again at the July meeting but, with little progress yet on any of the key factors that the... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BRL on a tear, monetary policy divergence The strong performance of the Brazilian real appears to have been driven by a rise in the price of some of Brazil's key export commodities. But we expect these prices to fall back over the remainder... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE can’t get no satisfaction Judging by the heavy criticism of the Bank of England this week, it seems as though it is dammed if it raises interest rates rapidly and damned if it raises them slowly. While we think some of the... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Growth still weakening despite housing rebound The jump in housing starts in May appeared to confirm that the sector is enjoying a revival of fortune as mortgage rates have eased slightly. Nevertheless, the experience of the mild recession of 2001... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Intel investments, Q3 Outlook The central bank meetings in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey that took place this week all produced different outcomes, and policymakers’ communications suggest that interest rates in these countries will... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt deal, austerity in Kenya, SARB to hold? This week saw Zambia edge closer to getting a debt restructuring over the line, but an agreement with official creditors suggested that there remain sticking points when it comes to negotiations with... 23rd June 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BNM to stay on the sidelines, BSP hints at rate cuts Inflation in Malaysia fell again last month, which supports our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is now over. But with growth likely to hold up better than elsewhere in the region, and... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
