Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian consumer hits speed bump Provisional data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that consumer spending slumped in Q2, as households sharply pared back discretionary expenditure. Faced with falling real incomes and... 19th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2023) Although price pressures are dissipating, they could prove stickier on the way down than we anticipate. As things stand, we don’t think the data are strong enough to prompt the RBNZ to resume its... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How heavily are interest rates weighing on GDP? Splitting real GDP growth into the sectors most and least sensitive to interest rates provides some tentative evidence that higher interest rates are starting to weigh a bit more heavily on real... 18th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland’s inflation spectre slain Swiss inflation has fallen sharply this year to below 2% and we expect it to stay there for the foreseeable future. In contrast to the SNB’s view, we think second-round effects on wages will be quite... 18th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Chile’s recovery is set to surprise on the upside The large macroeconomic imbalances that built up during Chile’s post-pandemic recovery have eased substantially, which is likely to prompt the central bank to deliver more rate cuts than almost any... 17th July 2023 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish hike still likely to be the last in this cycle The Bank of Canada struck a hawkish tone at its meeting this week, emphasising persistent excess demand and sticky price inflation. Nonetheless, with the upgrades to the Bank’s GDP and inflation... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tighter policy on the cards, Germany’s China Strategy This week brought another raft of weak data on the euro-zone economy. And further struggles lie ahead, with the minutes of the June ECB meeting and a statement released by EU finance ministers... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey policy, Polish spending, Russia’s current account The raft of data for May out of Turkey this week underscored the precarious state of the economy prior to the shift back to orthodox economic policymaking. The central bank needs to use next week’s... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 14th July 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will only deliver two more rate hikes Inflation seems to be overshooting the RBA’s forecasts and the recent acceleration in pay hikes in enterprise bargaining agreements will add to the Bank’s concerns that inflation expectations may... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly May wage data hints at virtuous wage-price cycle Regular pay growth was the strongest in May in almost three decades and suggests that we may have underestimated the influence the stellar result from this year’s annual spring wage negotiations will... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño presents mixed risks for Lat Am The likelihood of an El Niño event over the second half of the year raises the risk that activity is disrupted, inflation falls more slowly than we currently expect, and central banks’ monetary easing... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.3% y/y last month means the central bank will almost certainly follow through on its recent hawkish rhetoric by hiking interest rates when it meets next month. A... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update 5.0% likely to be the peak The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
