Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a slightly higher-than-expected 4.0% last month won’t stop Copom from lowering interest rates at its September meeting. By the same token, however, the figure... 11th August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI cautious, government aims to cool food price rise The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% as expected this week and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. And while several policy measures announced by the government this... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco profit slump, Egypt back on the orthodox train? The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as... 10th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hike and signal one more increase We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%, and follow that up with a final hike in September to 4.25%. 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI maintains hawkish tone amid food price surge The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. It’s unlikely that the rate hiking cycle will restart. But there is a... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up? Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still flagging recession risk Even though the financial strains that emerged after SVB’s collapse have dissipated, interest rate hikes have left overall financial conditions in major advanced economies close to their tightest... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ done hiking, rate cuts in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to turn, we suspect that Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not lift interest rates any higher. To be sure, the Bank is likely to... 9th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily More yield curve “disinversion”, perhaps, but not like that We think the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread will become less inverted over the next year or so, but doubt this will come primarily via a continued rise in the 10-year yield like we saw last week... 7th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will continue to leave rates unchanged over the rest of this year. In our view... 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to remain on hold The further rise in the unemployment rate in July and signs that the housing market is cooling again are both reasons to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates further. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly LatAm central banks kick off easing cycles with a bang The decisions in the past week by central banks in both Chile and Brazil to cut interest rates confirm that Latin America remains at the front of the pack in this global monetary cycle. We think Peru... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cuts approaching in CEE, retail downturn passing Expectations for the start of monetary easing cycles in Poland and Czechia strengthened this week and the debate now is about whether or not central banks will cut interest rates at their next... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Peak does not mean pivot There are two key points to remember as we near the end of the hiking phase of the interest rate cycle and get close to the holding phase. First, a peak in interest rates does not mean that a pivot to... 4th August 2023 · 8 mins read
