India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What to expect from the ECB’s operational review When the ECB Governing Council announces the results of its operational review later this year, it is likely to say it will continue to use the deposit rate as its key policy tool. We also expect the... 12th September 2023 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (August 2023) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.6% y/y in August won’t prevent the central bank from delivering another 50bp cut, to 12.75% when it meets later this month. But with core services inflation, which... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession. But with real disposable incomes falling, we... 11th September 2023 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC rate cuts: Go big or go home The quantitative tools that the PBOC relied on to pump up credit growth during previous downturns have become ineffective due to weak demand. That leaves interest rates as the main avenue for monetary... 11th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem more confident that Bank will meet its target In his speech this week, Governor Tiff Macklem sounded much more confident that the Bank will be able to meet its 2% inflation target. The latest labour market and local housing data suggest that may... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect a rally in government bonds in the US and Europe Market implied rates suggest that investors expect inflation to normalise in the US and Europe in the next couple of years. While we share that view, we think they are overestimating the level of... 8th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in oil prices not yet a big inflation risk The recent rise in oil prices to $90 per barrel means CPI inflation is likely to rise from 6.8% in July to 7.1% in August, but it won’t prevent inflation falling to the 2% target by the middle of next... 8th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish NBP skating on thin ice after bumper rate cut The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to kick off its easing cycle this week with a much larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate cut has been heavily criticised, and suggests to us that... 8th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bad news on inflation Headline inflation across Emerging Asia jumped last month due to a rise in food and fuel price inflation. We have raised our inflation forecasts for a number of countries to reflect the deterioration... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FX intervention looking increasingly likely With the yen weakening to a one-year low against the dollar, the chances that the authorities will intervene to stem its slide have risen. That would probably have little success if interest rate... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September decisions 1695304800 Will the FOMC’s September meeting confirm that the Fed is done with tightening? Will the ECB and Bank of England take rates higher?
Global Economics Update Macro catch-up: the global state of play Developments in the past few weeks have moved the dial somewhat on the global story. In major DMs, there have been more signs of activity softening either in terms of output or employment, evidence of... 7th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (September) The decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to leave the overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.0% came as no surprise. Despite the poor near term outlook for economic growth, we expect BNM to remain... 7th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank tries to rein in rate cut bets The more cautious tone of the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today supports our view that, once the large falls in inflation are behind us in early 2024 and the economy... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada’s next move likely to be a rate cut The Bank of Canada accompanied its decision to leave interest rates unchanged with a pledge to hike again if needed, but we doubt it will need to follow through. With recession risks rising and labour... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
