Global Markets Update A bright outlook for EM bonds, but not just yet We think that bonds in Emerging Markets (EMs) will struggle in the next couple of months. Further ahead, though, we expect their yields to fall, as both “risk-free” rates and spreads drop. In view of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation on the way down, but upside risks remain Data over the weekend showed that Egypt’s inflation rate slowed, confirming that September marked the peak, and our baseline scenario is that it will continue to drop back as we head into 2024. The... 13th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further chunky rise in Russian inflation to 6.7% y/y in October provides additional evidence that demand is outstripping supply in Russia’s economy. We think that inflation will continue to rise... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank unlikely to follow through with hawkish message The Bank of Canada’s latest Summary of Deliberations was more hawkish than most probably expected, with some members of the Governing Council still seemingly arguing for further rate hikes. That said... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom minutes, Chile’s constitution The minutes to last week's Brazilian central bank meeting revealed that policymakers remain concerned about inflationary pressures, with inflation expectations now considered to be "unanchored". A... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish CEE central banks, EU expanding further east Communications from central bankers across Central and Eastern Europe this week struck a decisively hawkish tone, suggesting that interest rates could be left on hold across most of the region in the... 10th November 2023 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ preparing the path for further policy changes Governor Ueda has this week been preparing the ground for the next steps in the BoJ’s retreat from ultra-loose policy. Stronger recent wage data and increasing pressure for further, larger pay hikes... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Close call for the BSP, but rates likely to be left unchanged The BSP’s scheduled meeting on Thursday will be a close call. On balance, we think the unexpectedly large drop in headline inflation last month and the recent recovery in the peso will be enough to... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (October 2023) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.8% y/y in October confirms that the mini inflation cycle has now topped out. Inflation will continue to fall in the coming months, paving the way for further... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Antipodean central banks are done tightening The RBA's decision to lift rates by 25bp earlier this week does not mark a full-fledged resumption of its hiking cycle. Rather, we believe the Bank was simply taking out additional insurance to make... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Event US Drop-In: October CPI and the Fed rate outlook 1699974000 Shortly after the release of the October CPI report, our US Economics team held a client briefing all about the October report and the inflation and growth outlooks and how they’ll shape Fed policy
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth appears to have all but stalled in Q3 but that was after a very strong first half. There... 9th November 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit data point to recessions in DMs Bank lending data from the major advanced economies confirmed that lending was very subdued in September and the latest bank lending surveys show that banks have since tightened their lending criteria... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
