Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) After a seven-month hiatus, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (new-look) Monetary Policy Committee stepped up to the plate and hiked interest rates by 400bp, to 22.75%, as it showed greater appetite to... 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (February 2024) The breakdown of Brazil’s February mid-month inflation reading of 4.5% y/y showed that core services inflation remained elevated. And while further 50bp cuts in the Selic rate next month (to 10.75%)... 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: assessing the implications of a lower inflation target Talk of the South African Reserve Bank’s inflation target being lowered has reared its head again. In this Update, we answer five key questions on what this could mean for the economy. In the near... 27th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth will remain subdued January’s money and credit data are consistent with our view that the improvement in the data towards the end of last year was not the beginning of strong recovery. 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Israel’s central bank opted to leave interest rates on hold at 4.50% today – in contrast to the consensus view for a cut – and the communications continued to emphasise upside inflation risks... 26th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 26th February 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa Budget, SARB new MPC member South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but fiscal pressures before and after May’s election are likely to derail the plans. The debt-to-GDP ratio will... 23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly April back in play for first interest rate cut The encouraging January CPI data mean that the Bank of Canada’s April policy meeting is back in play for a potential interest rate cut, although it still seems more likely that the Bank will wait... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay first rate cut until June Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Our forecasts now assume 100bp of cuts this year and a further 100bp next year... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next... 23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tax cuts now imply tax rises after the election Whatever the Chancellor gives away in tax cuts in the Budget, the next government will have to take away in the form of tax hikes after the election. This means any fiscal sugar rush for the economy... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Underlying inflation still a worry, more German gloom The recent increase in surveys of price pressures and the strong German wage figures released this week suggest there is still not enough evidence to convince the ECB that underlying inflationary... 23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand under pressure to cut interest rates Thailand has experienced by far the slowest recovery from the pandemic in the region – with GDP just 0.5% bigger than it was in the final quarter of 2019. While much of the weakness is due to the slow... 23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read
