Africa Economics Update The naira’s march to fair value The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is... 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook World-beating growth set to continue India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third... 13th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates and YCC will end this month With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting... 13th March 2024 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Investors are right not to fret too much about inflation Stronger-than-expected US core CPI data did not trigger as big a reassessment in rate expectations as they did last month in financial markets, and we still forecast the Fed to start easing policy... 12th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (February 2024) The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA on course for rate cuts in August We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: The BOJ March meeting and the end of negative rates 1710835200 Economists from our Japan and Markets teams held an online briefing shortly after the March decision to brief clients on the meeting outcome, talk through any market implicati
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (February 2024) February’s inflation data from Norway strengthen our conviction that Norges Bank will cut interest rates much sooner than its forecasts suggest. 11th March 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem leaves the door open for a June cut Governor Tiff Macklem dropped a hint this week that the Bank of Canada may be ready to cut rates by June. There was little in the data to dissuade the Bank, with unemployment rising and bankruptcies... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little... 8th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage data point to June cut; worrying demographics Christine Lagarde’s comments following the ECB meeting and the Q4 wage data released this week support our view that the ECB will start cutting rates in June. Meanwhile, news that EU births fell to a... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly New productive buzzwords China’s leadership is increasingly talking about “New Productive Forces” as the key to the country’s future economic success – harnessing them was the first Major Task for 2024 in the government Work... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s inflation forecast looks like an outlier The Office for Budget Responsibility’s big downward revision to its CPI inflation forecast in this week’s Budget brings it more into line with our forecast for inflation to fall below the 2.0% target... 8th March 2024 · 9 mins read
