UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2025) With services inflation still elevated at 4.7%, the small fall in CPI inflation from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May (CE 3.2%, consensus 3.4%) won’t prompt the Bank of England to deviate from its recent... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared... 17th June 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates before year-end The Bank of Japan decided to taper its bond purchases at a slower pace from next year and retained its pessimistic outlook for the economy. However, we expect that mounting upside risks to the Bank’s... 17th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Petro dashes Colombia’s fiscal credibility The Colombian government’s fiscal plans unveiled late on Friday will have dashed any lingering hopes that policymakers would try to stabilise the public debt-to-GDP ratio, at least ahead of next year... 16th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal plans, Mexican exports The Colombian government’s fiscal plans due to be released later today are likely to see a much less ambitious budget deficit target and a suspension of the fiscal rule, which will raise further... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BOJ will still see inflation risks tilting higher The Bank of Japan meets next week with domestic data mixed and trade headwinds significant. It won’t consider hiking this time, but we don’t think – as many now do – that the Bank won’t move again... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Recovery appears to be stumbling in the Antipodes New survey data suggest that business conditions in Australia continued to deteriorate in May. Moreover, with firms also reporting a renewed easing in cost and price pressures, risks are tilting... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch BOE Watch: Risks shifting towards UK rates being cut below 3.50% The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.25% at its meeting on Thursday 19th June and will keep its options open for the subsequent meeting in August. But the recent falls... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region... 12th June 2025 · 21 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2025) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a 75-month low of 2.8% y/y in May. Inflation may now have bottomed out, but we think it will rise only very gradually back towards the Reserve Bank’s... 12th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second act for negative rates in Switzerland While it will be close call, we think the SNB is most likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp next week, bringing it back below zero. That would leave little room for more rate cuts further ahead. 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank in no rush to start cutting We expect Norges Bank to wait a bit longer before it finally starts to cut interest rates. And as the economy is growing at a decent pace and the labour market is still tight, the Bank is likely to... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed Watch: Fed to stand firm amid the noise We expect the underlying strength in the economy and uncertainty over the policy outlook to keep the Fed in “wait-and-see” mode next week. The updated Summary of Economic Projections are likely to... 11th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (June 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%... 11th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank likely to wait for uncertainty to clear On balance, we think the Riksbank is likely to wait until its August meeting before cutting interest rates again in order to get greater clarity on the outlook for the economy. After a 25bp cut in... 11th June 2025 · 3 mins read
