UK Economics Update Market turmoil gives MPC another reason to delay rate hike Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent meltdown in global financial markets, we doubt that it will knock the economic recovery off course. That said, it provides the more cautious... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers put focus on supporting economy, not market With the government’s efforts to prop up equity prices through direct purchases in tatters, policymakers have changed tack with a simultaneous cut to benchmark interest rates and the required reserve... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro’s rise stall the recovery? Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the market rout? China’s interest rate cut has helped to stem the panic that has gripped emerging markets in recent days, but it has also raised the obvious question about whether other EMs may follow suit. We doubt... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Banks report sluggish loan demand, but lenders have underestimated the strength ofcredit growth since last year’s sales tax hike. We think that borrowing by householdsand firms will continue to... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Sinking commodity prices more bad news for Canada The turmoil in global financial markets, particularly the renewed weakness in commodity prices, is more bad news for Canada’s struggling economy. The timing of the Federal election in October may... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the Fed bow to market turmoil and delay rate hikes? There are no signs of any major downturn in the US economy, economic growth in China still appears to slowing rather than collapsing and emerging markets are not about to endure a repeat of the 1997... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing Further falls in crude oil prices are making it even harder for the Bank of Japan to hit its inflation target. Despite some sanguine comments from Prime Minister Abe today, we think these price falls... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Panic about China is overblown Investors are over reacting about economic risks in China. The collapse of the equity bubble tells us next to nothing about the state of China’s economy. In fact, recent data have been more positive... 24th August 2015 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Mexican inflation in the first half of the month suggests that the sharp fall in the peso is still having little impact on domestic price pressures. While the recent sell-off in the... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil not the only worry Nigeria’s economy has struggled this year, with the most obvious cause being the recent collapse of global oil prices. But this isn’t the only obstacle to faster growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Don’t bet on further big falls in the Canadian dollar Markets still appear to be speculating on further declines in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar but, after a 20% decline over the past 12 months, we believe that there is little scope for any... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed has set a pretty low bar for a rate hike The projections made by Fed officials back in June indicated that they were setting a pretty low bar for hiking interest rates later this year. Nevertheless, despite those low expectations, officials... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek election adds to bailout implementation risks Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) Although July's annual core inflation rate nudged up to 2.4% from 2.3%, the Bank of Canada likely couldn't care less. With the economy in a mild recession and falling oil and other industrial... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
