UK Economics Update Surging oil price won't stop interest rates falling a long way The rise in the oil price close to, and briefly through, the $100 per barrel level has prompted renewed concern over inflation. But the equally worrying implications for activity suggest that the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Stagflation-lite (Q4 2007) The recent surge in headline inflation in many economies has raised fears of “stagflation” – a combination of rapid price increases and weak or even negative growth in economic activity. But we are... 21st December 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle not yet over The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates today for the third time since the beginning of thefinancial market turmoil is in stark contrast to the actions of some other central banks. Given... 12th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Core inflation dangers greater this time? Rising food and energy prices look set to prompt another period of high headline inflation in the euro-zone like that seen between 2004 and 2006. But with the economy operating closer to capacity, the... 15th November 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more dovish tone Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to keep interest rates on hold and to lower its projection for the future path of rates could lead to a renewed weakening of the krone following the strengthening... 31st October 2007 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation risks are still a serious concern (Q3 2007) The global contagion from the sub-prime crisis in the US has created a dilemma for central banks. On the one hand, the turmoil in the financial markets argues for lower interest rates. But on the... 3rd October 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank continues tightening cycle Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise interest rates for a second time since the turmoil in the financial markets is another demonstration that central banks are likely to remain focused on the... 26th September 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals business as usual Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to press ahead with the previously indicated rise in its key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.75% supports our view that central banks are unlikely to be deflected from... 15th August 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is imported deflation at an end? The rise in UK import prices in the last three years is a one-off and does not mean that imported deflation has come to an end. The UK is likely to benefit from the lower level of costs in countries... 2nd August 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK inflation might not fall after all The recent further increase in oil prices and the potential stickiness of food prices suggest that previous expectations of a sharp fall in UK consumer price inflation over the coming months may now... 16th July 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pricing power - passing or permanent? The rise in firms’ pricing power has climbed to the top of the MPC’s list of inflation worries. We think it reflects the transitory influences of previous cost increases and strong demand, rather than... 13th June 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Labour market reform critical to Polish prospects Radical labour market reforms could boost potential GDP growth in Poland to 7% per annum. But with little political appetite for reform, we think that growth will drop back from 6% this year to around... 23rd May 2007 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Will food prices be the next inflation shock? (Q2 2007) Our feature article assesses the risks to inflation from rising food prices. The contribution of food prices to the headline rate is now larger than that of energy prices in most major economies, and... 18th May 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank won’t wait long to continue tightening Although the Norges Bank unexpectedly kept rates on hold at 4% today, we do not think that this represents a fundamental change in the outlook for Norwegian interest rates ahead. 25th April 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Falling inflation to offset drag on spending from rate rises The outlook for consumer spending this year hinges on which proves to be dominant - higher interest rates or falling inflation. The boost to real income growth from falling inflation should offset the... 20th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Falling inflation to offset drag on spending from rate rises The outlook for consumer spending this year hinges on which proves to be dominant - higher interest rates or falling inflation. The boost to real income growth from falling inflation should offset the... 20th March 2007 · 1 min read
