UK Economics Update A rise in core inflation may not reflect underlying price pressures The ONS measure of core CPI inflation does not exclude all elements of food and energy prices in th CPI and is therefore likely to rise alongside energy and food prices. There is a danger, then, that... 14th July 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank responds to inflation concerns The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates again today clearly shows that it remains concerned about rising inflationary pressures. This will support the Norwegian krone in the near term. 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Core inflation in the 1970s and now The current economic climate is increasingly being compared to the inflationary years of the 1970s and early 1980s. But a quick look at what actually happened back then suggests that the UK economy is... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Back to the 1970's? (Q2 2008) The resurgence of global inflation has raised fears of a return to the “stagflation” of the 1970s. However, inflation is still very low by those standards and the inflation environment is... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold; next move still likely to be a cut The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its target range for three-month interest rates on hold (at amid-point of 2.75%) was a relief amid concerns that inflation fears might force the Bank to... 19th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BoJ more sensitive than most to jump in inflation expectations The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations soaring, we believe that rates will be raised again sooner than generally anticipated and perhaps even earlier... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ more sensitive than most to jump in inflation expectations The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations soaring, we believe that rates will be raised again sooner than generally anticipated and perhaps even earlier... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Just how high could inflation get? If oil and food prices were to carry on rising, with knock-on effects on core price pressures, UK consumer price inflation could rise above 5% and remain above its 2% target until 2010 and beyond... 12th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bond market’s inflation fears will fade…eventually The UK bond market is more concerned about inflation now than at any point since the inflation target was established in 1997 and such fears could persist for some time yet. But further ahead, a... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher inflation to hit consumers The deterioration in the inflation outlook is a double whammy for households. Not only will high inflation squeeze households’ real income growth, but it will also prevent interest rates from falling... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher inflation to hit consumers The deterioration in the inflation outlook is a double whammy for households. Not only will high inflation squeeze households’ real income growth, but it will also prevent interest rates from falling... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growing letter threat darkens growth outlook Recent increases in oil and gas prices have increased the chances that consumer price inflation will breach the 3% ceiling which would trigger another letter from the Monetary Policy Committee to the... 28th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation concerns to delay the ECB The European Central Bank’s continued hawkishness suggests that euro-zone interest rates are now unlikely to fall before the third quarter of this year at the earliest. But we still think rates will... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China growth concerns fade, but no respite on inflation Data showing that both GDP and consumer price inflation remain strong guarantee that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will remain focused on tackling rising prices. Today’s decision to raise bank... 16th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are inflation expectations really so important? Inflation expectations may not be quite as important an influence on actual inflation as the Monetary Policy Committee appears to believe. Accordingly, there is a danger that the Committee keeps... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The "wrong" type of inflation in Japan? Inflation driven solely by food and energy prices is not exactly what the Bank of Japan has been hoping for. Nonetheless, even if Japan is experiencing the “wrong” type of inflation now, the chances... 28th March 2008 · 1 min read
