UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery quickens as productivity rebounds The run of positive economic news has continued, with quarterly GDP growth in Q2 revised up to 0.7% and August’s CIPS/Markit PMIs pointing to even stronger growth in Q3. The divergence between output... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Business and household prospects diverging The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP only added to the uncertainty about the planned consumption tax hikes. The latest monthly data have mostly been favourable, notably the buoyancy of business... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers leading moderate recovery The euro-zone exited its record-long recession in Q2 and recent business surveys suggest that the economy should expand again in the third quarter. An increase in household spending, the first in... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: towards a sweet spot of faster growth and low inflation The severity of the slowdown in the Polish economy over the past 18 months took commentators and policymakers by surprise. The good news is that the slowdown appears to have been largely cyclical in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currency weakness will not lead to inflation spike in Asia The recent sell-off in Asian currencies has sparked fears that the region is about to suffer a sharp spike in inflation. We think this is unlikely. While exchange rate depreciation can push up the... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) Wage growth slowed in July and is likely to ease further in coming months as bonus season ends. Unless regular earnings pick up markedly, households’ purchasing power will therefore become further... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Split vote on QE to re-emerge The long-awaited introduction of forward guidance has probably not had quite the impact the MPC was hoping for. We think that some members will vote to resume quantitative easing (QE) this month... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & CPI (Aug.)/ Unemployment (Jul 13.) August’s EC survey added to evidence of a moderate recovery in the euro-zone, but July’s unemployment figures confirm that this is not yet boosting the labour market. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s industrial production and labour market data show that the recovery should continue in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the ongoing rise in consumer price inflation is still largely a reflection... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How vulnerable is Asia to capital outflows? Financial markets in Asia have continued to suffer this week but we continue to believe that the region will weather the storm. Vulnerabilities are highest in India. Elsewhere though, even a large... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) July's subdued inflation figures are consistent with an economy growing below potential, which will only reinforce the Bank of Canada's reluctance to raise rates anytime soon. With growth expected to... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness unlikely to cause EM inflation to rise The sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies this month is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM-wide inflation. Indeed, looking ahead, we think the outlook for EM inflation is fairly benign. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak rand to push South African inflation higher South African inflation breached the upper bound of the SARB’s target range in July, and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate a little further in the coming months. This will... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Residential investment growth set to slow We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the next few quarters as the Federal fiscal tightening begins to ease although, at the same time, it looks like the economic recovery will receive less support... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Stable outlook for inflation leaves central banks with a free hand The continued high level of spare capacity and absence of big commodity price movements suggest that inflation in advanced economies is likely to remain low and stable in the coming months. This... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
