Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation increases scope for monetary easing The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to 1.1% in September – its lowest rate since February 2010 – leaves it well below the ECB’s target of “below, but close to, 2%”. While falling energy inflation has... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s euro-zone flash CPI figures confirmed that the ECB enjoys plenty of room to loosen monetary policy further. 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The ongoing rise in inflation is still mostly a reflection of the slump in the exchangeover the past year. While goods inflation has risen sharply, service inflation remainssubdued and the timelier... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Few signs of EM inflation pressures Emerging market inflation edged down in August and there’s little evidence to suggest that there will be a significant rise in price pressures over the coming months. 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) The increased slack in the economy kept underlying inflation under wraps in August. With economic growth likely to remain sluggish through the rest of this year and inflation expectations well... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) We doubt that the fall in CPI inflation in August will prevent the Fed from announcing a tapering of its asset purchases at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting tomorrow. Indeed, the risk of a... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) & Lloyds sale August’s fall in CPI inflation marks another step towards the 2% rate we think it could reach early next year. An end to the squeeze on households’ real earnings remains in sight. 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s inflation data keep RBI in a bind India’s most closely-watched inflation measure rose further in August, underlining the challenges faced by the Reserve Bank’s (RBI) new governor, Raghuram Rajan, when the economy is obviously... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly To what extent is the weak yen pushing up inflation? The return of inflation has been welcomed by many – although not by Japanese consumers – as an early success for “Abenomics”. In reality there is little behind the increases in the CPI other than the... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s retail sales data weren’t as good as expected, but they still suggest that underlying consumption growth is accelerating. Although next week’s Fed decision will be a close call, we still... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stay low even as the recovery picks up Inflation in most advanced economies is likely to remain at or below target for at least the next two years. GDP has accelerated in many countries, and has stabilised in the euro-zone, but it will be... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Encouraging signs on inflation and foreign demand Today’s inflation data added no additional pressure for monetary tightening while the weekend’s export data provided further evidence of a revival in foreign demand. 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recovery gains momentum but capacity still ample The business surveys for August suggest that the global recovery, which accelerated in the second quarter, may have strengthened further in Q3. However, there is still plenty of spare capacity around... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. & Trade (Jul.), BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey (Q3) One criticism levelled at Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) is that – for the S&P 500 at least – the denominator has been depressed by accounting changes. This has led... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Consumer price inflation stabilised over the summer and, while it is still likely to rise later in the year, the outlook is even more benign than we had anticipated a few months ago. We are lowering... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
