China Economics Update No rush to tighten Relatively mild increases in consumer and property prices in the first two months of the year relax pressure for immediate policy tightening in China. 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s UK producer prices figures have brought the first hints that cost pressures in the production sector may be starting to ease a bit. 5th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Consumer price inflation probably climbed to more than 2% last month and is likely to continue drifting higher. But a closer look shows few signs of major price pressures. 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final Jan.), Ger. & Sp. CPI (1st Est. Feb.) The latest euro-zone, German and Spanish CPI figures highlight the continued lack of inflation pressure in the region. The ECB’s main worry should be the continued threat of deflation, rather than a... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Output, Housing, CPI (Jan.) & Manuf. PMI (Feb.) The latest activity and survey data support our view that Japan’s GDP growth will continue to surprise the markets on the upside in the first half of the year, but the CPI data do nothing to ease... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia jumps the queue and should hike next week Today was Malaysia’s turn to report Q4 GDP growth far stronger than the consensus and even our more-bullish-than-most expectations. All the positives will probably stay in place in coming quarters and... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Upswings to stay impressive for a while (Q1 10) The trade-dependent economies will eventually see slower GDP growth later this year and in 2011 as the global upswing loses momentum. But Asia’s rebound will not come to a complete halt and growth, by... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Overseas inflation more reassuring for the UK than it looks The UK has not been alone in seeing inflation rise recently, prompting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to suggest that common factors may therefore be keeping inflation high globally. However, a... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices figures should provide some reassurance that, behind the special factors currently pushing inflation higher, underlying price pressures in the UK economy remain pretty... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC retains faith in spare capacity to reduce inflation Last week’s Inflation Report was always likely to show a downward revision to the MPC’s growth forecasts and it duly delivered. But less certain was whether the recent rise in inflation would have... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation fears set to return Today’s inflation and loan data, and the latest statement from the People’s Bank, may reassure markets that the pace of tightening in China will not be as fast as many had feared. This seems right to... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surveys point to significant amount of spare capacity In yesterday’s Inflation Report, the Bank of England highlighted the uncertainties surrounding the amount of spare capacity in the economy. Indeed, the recent stubbornness of UK inflation has led to... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (February) The distinctly dovish tone of the Bank of England’s February Inflation Report begs the question of why the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did not implement a further extension of its quantitative... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation heading for record lows Russian inflation fell to its slowest rate in nearly three years in January. With the recovery set to lose steam over the coming quarters, we expect inflation to fall to record lows later this year. 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Mexican inflation about to take off? A combination of one-off factors means that Mexican inflation is likely to accelerate in the first quarter of this year. But the large amount of spare capacity that has opened up over the past... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will monetary growth fuel inflation? China’s money supply expanded rapidly last year, but its growth is already subsiding. With spare capacity still a problem, the ongoing pick-up in inflation is unlikely to last for long. 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
