China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Consumer price inflation is probably close to a peak. If the People’s Bank does not raise interest rates in the next few weeks (we think it won’t), it will find it increasingly hard to justify doing... 5th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Spending & CPI (Aug.) This week's wave of Japanese data has ended on a more positive note, with the unemployment rate falling in August for the second successive month, household spending firm, and the CPI no worse than... 1st October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Sep.) September’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation probably reflected energy and food effects, while underlying price pressures remain very weak. 30th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Sep.) & Consumer Confidence (Oct.) September’s rise in German HICP inflation appears to have reflected temporary energy and food effects. Core inflation remains extremely subdued and we still see the headline rate coming close to zero... 28th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Too soon to cry victory in Russia's inflation battle Aside from a recent drought-related rise in food prices, our forecast that Russian inflation would fall sharply this year has played out as we expected. But while underlying price pressures should... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market slack will help inflation to fall Last week’s consumer prices figures showing headline inflation holding steady at 3.1% fuelled doubts in some quarters over the MPC’s long held view that spare capacity in the economy will have a... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Food price rises shouldn’t prompt policy changes Tomorrow’s inflation figures are likely to show that a further rise in food prices stopped headline inflation from falling more sharply – or at all – in August. However, we doubt that rising food... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Food price rises shouldn’t prompt policy changes Tomorrow’s inflation figures are likely to show that a further rise in food prices stopped headline inflation from falling more sharply – or at all – in August. However, we doubt that rising food... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s UK producer prices figures brought further tentative evidence that cost pressures at the start of the inflation pipeline are beginning to ease. 10th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Consumer price inflation continues to rise on the back of rapid food price increases, which should prove short-lived. Underlying price pressures remain weak. 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea biding its time, but rate hikes lie ahead The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly held its policy rate at 2.25% today. Concerns about rising global uncertainties tipped the balance in favour of no change, despite the BoK expecting solid GDP... 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Deflation remains a slow-burning threat (Q2 2010) A rebound in some commodity prices and stabilisation of core inflation rates suggest that the immediate risk of deflation has diminished, but in fact it remains a significant threat in just about... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s small fall in euro-zone CPI inflation confirmed that price pressures in the region are very subdued. And although unemployment has continued to edge down, this is unlikely to prompt any... 31st August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German CPI (1st Est. Aug.) August’s fall in German HICP inflation confirmed the absence of price pressures in the euro-zone’s largest economy. Indeed, we still see the headline rate there falling to near zero next year. 27th August 2010 · 1 min read
