UK Economics Focus Is the CPI giving a complacent picture of inflation? The answer is no. Attention tends to focus on CPI, given that it is the measure of inflation targeted by the Monetary Policy Committee. And although yesterday’s data showed that CPI inflation rose to... 16th June 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Oil prices no major threat to UK inflation outlook The recent rise in global oil prices to close to $40pb appears to provide support for the MPC’s concerns that rising commodity prices pose a serious threat to the outlook for UK inflation. But while... 11th May 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The HICP and interest rates (re-visited) Conventional wisdom has had it that the impending switch in the targeted measure of UK inflation from RPIX to the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) will have either a neutral or downward... 30th September 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Switch to HICP to bring deflation threat closer to home In his speech on the assessment of the economic tests for UK membership of the euro, the Chancellor confirmed the Treasury’s second worst-kept secret too – that the UK will adopt the European... 16th June 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Deflation Ahead? November’s drop in RPIX inflation to its equal lowest ever level was notable enough, but in our view the number is just the starting point for some much more dramatic falls ahead. 14th December 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Oil price fall to take ¼% off inflation Oil prices have fallen through $24 per barrel for the first time since early April on signs of both weaker demand in response to the economic slowdown and increased supply as Iraq has resumed... 12th July 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Inflation & Interest Rates – Sticking to our Guns A succession of stronger economic data releases, coupled with speculation of early entry into the single currency, has prompted a dramatic shift in the markets’ expectations of the future path of... 13th June 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Inflation is in the Eye of the Beholder The official target measure of inflation, RPIX, is not only running well below target, but is probably seriously exaggerating true inflationary pressures. 7th March 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The Englishman's Home is His Castle - But are the Foundations Stable? (Q3 00) Sharp swings in the housing market have become an accepted characteristic of the UK economy over the past 30 years. Indeed, so pronounced have the swings in the housing market been that they have... 27th June 2000 · 1 min read
