Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank surprises markets with a rate hike An acceleration in inflation, in part due to the recent sharp drop in the ruble, caused Russia’s central bank to hike interest rates by 50bp today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain high... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation concerns resurface in Brazil Inflation has started to accelerate once again in Brazil, casting doubt over signals from the central bank that the hike in interest rates earlier this month could be the last in the current... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Mar.; Tokyo: Apr.) While the consumption tax hike at the beginning of April lifted inflation in the capital region close to 3%, price pressure should abate in coming months as import prices have moderated. 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation follows different paths in Saudi Arabia and the UAE Inflation has followed very different paths in the Gulf’s two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in recent months. In Saudi, consumer price inflation has continued to fall... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is an El Niño a risk to EM inflation? The current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world shows no signs of nearing an end. One possible risk to the outlook is an El Niño, which weather forecasters warn could be on its way, and... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rise in South African inflation has further to run South African inflation rose in March to the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) target range, and the effects of a weak rand and rising local food prices mean it is likely to accelerate further... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) While headline inflation rebounded to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, the uptick was due to higher energy prices and base year effects. In contrast, core inflation climbed only slightly to 1.3% last month... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Poor consumer sentiment adds to PM Abe’s challenges The collapse in consumer confidence shows that Japanese households lost their enthusiasm for “Abenomics” well before investor appetite for Japanese equities began to wane. 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB get the euro down? The ECB’s battle against deflation is turning into a fight to lower the euro exchange rate. But it is far from clear that the central bank will act sufficiently to bring the currency down far enough. 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar 14.) The rebound in CPI inflation to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, is partly due to the reversal of the base effects that pushed it down in February. Nonetheless, more permanent trends will lift both headline... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation will prove stubborn from here Indian inflation ticked up in March, ending a downward trend that had raised some hopes that the central bank might be winning its battle with price pressures. There are a number of reasons to think... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar 14.) The further fall in CPI inflation in March suggested that the six-year squeeze on real wages is finally over and took it a step closer to the 1% figure we think it could reach by the end of the year. 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB belatedly waking up to deflation dangers Recent speeches from officials suggest that the ECB has finally accepted that the threat of deflation in the euro-zone warrants further policy action. But it is far from clear that any action will be... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much spare capacity is left? If Japan is to succeed in escaping deflation, growth will have to pick up sufficiently to eliminate the margin of spare capacity - the so-called output gap - that has kept price pressures subdued... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Despite a seasonal pick-up in food inflation, today's data provide further evidence that general price pressures remain subdued. 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
