Japan Economics Focus Wages pick-up to drive Japan’s inflation and interest rates higher Japanese wage inflation has so far remained subdued despite the downward trend in unemploymentn since 2003. This probably reflects consumer uncertainty over the outlook for the economy, with employees... 24th January 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What's your inflation rate? According to the official figures, consumer price inflation has remained reasonably subdued in recent months. But the published average inflation rates disguise large differences in inflation rates... 30th November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will close the inflation gap? The last time the headline and core rates of consumer price inflation in the euro-zone diverged as they have over the last two years, it was a sharp rise in core inflation which eventually closed the... 29th November 2006 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Headline or core? Old problem, new dilemmas (Q4 2006) Our feature article revisits the old problem of whether central banks should focus on the headline inflation rate, or the core. (See pages 3-6.) The sharp rise in commodity prices over the last few... 24th November 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What does the inflation outlook imply for Japanese rates? The markets appear increasingly complacent over the outlook for Japanese interest rates. In part this reflects three common misunderstandings about the inflation data: the impact of base year... 22nd August 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The energy price threat to the UK economy Higher energy prices remain a significant threat to the UK economy. This is despite the fact that growth and inflation have appeared to be largely unscathed from recent rises in oil and wholesale gas... 10th July 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is inflation back from the dead? Recent signs of higher inflation in many advanced economies have prompted the question of whether inflation is back from the dead. Our answer is a qualified “no”. The shift to an era of low inflation... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is inflation back from the dead? Recent signs of higher inflation in many advanced economies have prompted the question of whether inflation is back from the dead. Our answer is a qualified “no”. The shift to an era of low inflation... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When can the MPC relax on inflation? A key factor preventing the Monetary Policy Committee from cutting interest rates further has been the threat that last year’s rise in CPI inflation will have knock-on effects on inflation... 30th January 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Prospects for inflation in the UK UK consumer price inflation has picked up sharply over the last year. Although this has been largely driven by the strength of global oil prices, the UK’s susceptibility to such developments in the... 13th October 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the switch to CPI blocking rate cuts? The switch to the consumer prices index as the targeted measure of inflation in 2003 may be having unintended and unfavourable effects on the UK economy by keeping interest rates higher than they... 22nd September 2005 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japan to escape deflation this year Both the Bank of Japan and the consensus of outside forecasters expect deflation to persist in Japan well into 2006. In contrast, we expect inflation to return this year. With next-to-nothing in terms... 15th May 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The impact of oil prices on euro-zone inflation The rise in oil prices to record highs makes for eye-catching headlines, but it exaggerates the impact on the euro-zone economy. In real terms, oil prices are still far lower than during the true ‘oil... 13th August 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Monetary Policy at the Crossroads (Q3 04) The general perception among economists and the markets alike is that the UK’s inflation targeting monetary policy regime is the model that all other countries should follow. But is the current regime... 27th June 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the CPI giving a complacent picture of inflation? The answer is no. Attention tends to focus on CPI, given that it is the measure of inflation targeted by the Monetary Policy Committee. And although yesterday’s data showed that CPI inflation rose to... 16th June 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Oil prices no major threat to UK inflation outlook The recent rise in global oil prices to close to $40pb appears to provide support for the MPC’s concerns that rising commodity prices pose a serious threat to the outlook for UK inflation. But while... 11th May 2004 · 1 min read
