US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Nov.) Consumer price inflation remained unusually weak in November and, given the large amount of excess capacity in America's economy, we expect it to continue trending gradually lower over the next couple... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov.) The Holiday shopping season appears to have got off to a very good start, suggesting that fourth-quarter consumption growth will be strong. But without a meaningful acceleration in real income growth... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s consumer prices figures will have done little to ease concerns over the continued stubbornness of price pressures in the UK economy. 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are policymakers being complacent about inflation? Consumer price inflation increased by much more than expected in November. But recent policy moves and official statements, including that from this weekend’s high-level policy meeting, give the... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Nov.) November’s producer prices figures suggested that cost pressures in the industrial sector are still pretty strong. 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How should Russia tackle its nascent inflation problem? The pick-up in Russian inflation over the past couple of months has been driven primarily by a surge in food prices, which should be temporary in nature. Instead, the bigger risk to the inflation... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation increases, but rates still on hold Brazilian inflation rose to 5.6% y/y in November – well above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) 4.5% target. But the bulk of the pick-up was driven by food prices and with policymakers at the BCB... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation probably rose further in November, but the upward momentum appears to be fading. Weekly data show that vegetable prices have fallen in each of the last four weeks. Unless... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on the euro-zone economy suggests that the recent strength of activity in the region is doing little to raise price pressures or improve conditions in the labour market. 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More to the inflation story than just the core The consensus is usually right to focus on the core measures of Japan’s CPI when looking at the prospects for a permanent end to deflation and the implications for monetary policy. Nonetheless, trends... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s rise in German HICP inflation reflected a temporary boost from the energy and food components. The rate remains low, at 1.6%, and looks set to fall again in the coming months as these... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response National CPI (Oct.) The return of inflation to Japan last month was widely expected and likely to be temporary, but this does not mean it should be ignored completely. 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Consumer Price Index (Oct.) While past increases in energy prices led to a stronger than expected inflation report in October, this shock is unlikely to be sustained. The knock-on effect of lower commodity prices next year... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilts' inflation jitters will ease in time The UK gilt market appears to have suffered from a serious bout of the inflation jitters over recent weeks. Sharp rises in global commodity prices and the continued stubbornness of consumer price... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Deflation still the real danger Fears that the Fed has put the economy on the path towards rampant inflation looked even more misguided last week when it was announced that core CPI inflation fell to a record low of just 0.6% in... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by the return of "inflation" Consumer prices probably rose year-on-year in October for the first time since 2008, but this would not mark the end of deflation in any meaningful sense. Aside from the occasional spike into positive... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
