Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals business as usual Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to press ahead with the previously indicated rise in its key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.75% supports our view that central banks are unlikely to be deflected from... 15th August 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is imported deflation at an end? The rise in UK import prices in the last three years is a one-off and does not mean that imported deflation has come to an end. The UK is likely to benefit from the lower level of costs in countries... 2nd August 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK inflation might not fall after all The recent further increase in oil prices and the potential stickiness of food prices suggest that previous expectations of a sharp fall in UK consumer price inflation over the coming months may now... 16th July 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pricing power - passing or permanent? The rise in firms’ pricing power has climbed to the top of the MPC’s list of inflation worries. We think it reflects the transitory influences of previous cost increases and strong demand, rather than... 13th June 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Labour market reform critical to Polish prospects Radical labour market reforms could boost potential GDP growth in Poland to 7% per annum. But with little political appetite for reform, we think that growth will drop back from 6% this year to around... 23rd May 2007 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Will food prices be the next inflation shock? (Q2 2007) Our feature article assesses the risks to inflation from rising food prices. The contribution of food prices to the headline rate is now larger than that of energy prices in most major economies, and... 18th May 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank won’t wait long to continue tightening Although the Norges Bank unexpectedly kept rates on hold at 4% today, we do not think that this represents a fundamental change in the outlook for Norwegian interest rates ahead. 25th April 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Falling inflation to offset drag on spending from rate rises The outlook for consumer spending this year hinges on which proves to be dominant - higher interest rates or falling inflation. The boost to real income growth from falling inflation should offset the... 20th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Falling inflation to offset drag on spending from rate rises The outlook for consumer spending this year hinges on which proves to be dominant - higher interest rates or falling inflation. The boost to real income growth from falling inflation should offset the... 20th March 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norge Bank signals significant further tightenin The Norges Bank hiked interest rates today by 25bps to 4.0%, marking a fourth consecutive move and the ninth step in the tightening cycle which began in June 2005. This also keeps rates a step ahead... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Too soon to sound the all clear (Q1 2007) Our feature article assesses the upside and downside risks to inflation in the year ahead. (See pages 3-6.) Headline inflation has fallen in most major economies, but it has continued to rise in a... 12th February 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Wages pick-up to drive Japan’s inflation and interest rates higher Japanese wage inflation has so far remained subdued despite the downward trend in unemploymentn since 2003. This probably reflects consumer uncertainty over the outlook for the economy, with employees... 24th January 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What's your inflation rate? According to the official figures, consumer price inflation has remained reasonably subdued in recent months. But the published average inflation rates disguise large differences in inflation rates... 30th November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will close the inflation gap? The last time the headline and core rates of consumer price inflation in the euro-zone diverged as they have over the last two years, it was a sharp rise in core inflation which eventually closed the... 29th November 2006 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Headline or core? Old problem, new dilemmas (Q4 2006) Our feature article revisits the old problem of whether central banks should focus on the headline inflation rate, or the core. (See pages 3-6.) The sharp rise in commodity prices over the last few... 24th November 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What does the inflation outlook imply for Japanese rates? The markets appear increasingly complacent over the outlook for Japanese interest rates. In part this reflects three common misunderstandings about the inflation data: the impact of base year... 22nd August 2006 · 1 min read
