UK Economics Update MPC’s fears over inflation expectations appear overdone The MPC remains concerned that inflation expectations will fail to drop back later this year even as inflation itself falls. After all, this is exactly what happened last year. Nonetheless, there are... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How worried should we all be about Chinese inflation? Chinese inflation is now at its highest in 11 years, and there seems little prospect of it falling much in the next couple of months. This has set alarm bells ringing in countries that have grown... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How worried should we all be about Chinese inflation? Chinese inflation is now at its highest in 11 years, and there seems little prospect of it falling much in the next couple of months. This has set alarm bells ringing in countries that have grown... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal will add to the ECB’s inflation concerns The news that Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, has won a 5.2% pay rise over the next 14 months has added to concerns over a build-up in medium-term inflationary pressures. While we think that... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bond market's inflation fears will fade in time Bond markets appear to have become much more concerned about the inflation outlook in the UK than elsewhere. Nonetheless, with the UK on the cusp of a sharp slowdown in activity, it might not be too... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How long will inflation worries linger? Concerns over the outlook for UK inflation look set to linger for some months, limiting the pace at which interest rates fall and increasing the risk that the economic slowdown will prove deeper and... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German wage negotiations not a major threat to inflation Wage negotiations begin in Germany today between employers and the services and public sector unions Ver.di and DBB. The unions’ demands for an 8% pay rise have raised concerns over the buildup of a... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to squeeze household spending Spanish CPI inflation surged to 4.3% in December, its highest rate in over 12 years. The widespread system of indexing wage settlements to inflation in Spain should ultimately protect workers’ incomes... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surging oil price won't stop interest rates falling a long way The rise in the oil price close to, and briefly through, the $100 per barrel level has prompted renewed concern over inflation. But the equally worrying implications for activity suggest that the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Stagflation-lite (Q4 2007) The recent surge in headline inflation in many economies has raised fears of “stagflation” – a combination of rapid price increases and weak or even negative growth in economic activity. But we are... 21st December 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle not yet over The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates today for the third time since the beginning of thefinancial market turmoil is in stark contrast to the actions of some other central banks. Given... 12th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Core inflation dangers greater this time? Rising food and energy prices look set to prompt another period of high headline inflation in the euro-zone like that seen between 2004 and 2006. But with the economy operating closer to capacity, the... 15th November 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more dovish tone Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to keep interest rates on hold and to lower its projection for the future path of rates could lead to a renewed weakening of the krone following the strengthening... 31st October 2007 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation risks are still a serious concern (Q3 2007) The global contagion from the sub-prime crisis in the US has created a dilemma for central banks. On the one hand, the turmoil in the financial markets argues for lower interest rates. But on the... 3rd October 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank continues tightening cycle Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise interest rates for a second time since the turmoil in the financial markets is another demonstration that central banks are likely to remain focused on the... 26th September 2007 · 1 min read
