UK Data Response UK Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s producer prices figures revealed that cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are continuing to intensify. But this should not prevent consumer price inflation from falling back in the... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Dec.) & Trade (Nov.) December’s final euro-zone CPI inflation figures should calm fears that underlying inflation pressures are building. But with headline CPI inflation likely to rise in early 2011, the ECB’s stance... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) & PPI (Dec.) November's trade figures support our view that annualised GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was at least 4%, better than the consensus forecast of just over 3%. Meanwhile, December's... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How will the floods in Australia affect the economy? The flooding in Queensland continues to devastate communities and businesses but it is still most likely that the impact on Australia’s economy as a whole will be relatively small and temporary... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2011 hold for Russia? With oil prices nearing $100pb, the near-term prospects for the Russian economy are looking up and the immediate challenge for 2011 will be to prevent inflation accelerating. Nonetheless, higher... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rise in euro-zone inflation to prove short-lived The euro-zone economic data released since Christmas has been fairly encouraging and suggests that, for now at least, the region continues to expand at a pretty healthy pace. But on the face of it... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the outlook for Hungarian inflation really so bad? We do not believe that the outlook for Hungarian inflation is as troubling as the National Bank now seems to think. Inflation is still above target and has been rising recent months, but the pick-up... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Three challenges for 2011 Policymakers in the region will face three challenges this year: keeping inflation under control, preventing asset price bubbles from building and managing currency appreciation. All are consequences... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Food or energy - which is the greatest inflation threat? The upward pressure on inflation this year from the recent surge in the cost of agricultural commodities will be much greater than that from the pick-up in oil prices. Fortunately from this... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update VAT inflation effects shouldn't panic the MPC Perhaps the biggest risk facing the household sector is the possibility of a near-term interest rate rise. We do not think that a modest rate rise would have a disastrous effect on household incomes... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s bigger-than-expected rise in euro-zone CPI inflation probably reflected energy and food effects. Underlying price pressures in the region remain very weak. 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall back once food spike digested The recent surge in the prices of agricultural commodities will put upward pressure on inflation well into 2011. But inflation in most major economies still looks set to peak some way below the levels... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) November inflation figures support our view that sluggish economic growth is dampening inflationary pressures. Significant excess capacity and slack in labour markets are likely to keep the underlying... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Inflation Expectations (Nov.) November’s official UK retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending relatively freely. But the combination of tax rises, high inflation and public sector job losses make for a... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Inflation Expectations (Nov.) November’s official UK retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending relatively freely. But the combination of tax rises, high inflation and public sector job losses make for a... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & Final CPI (Dec.) December’s euro-zone PMI surveys suggested that the economic recovery in the region maintained reasonable momentum towards the end of 2010. 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
