UK Economics Focus Just how high could inflation get? If oil and food prices were to carry on rising, with knock-on effects on core price pressures, UK consumer price inflation could rise above 5% and remain above its 2% target until 2010 and beyond... 12th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bond market’s inflation fears will fade…eventually The UK bond market is more concerned about inflation now than at any point since the inflation target was established in 1997 and such fears could persist for some time yet. But further ahead, a... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher inflation to hit consumers The deterioration in the inflation outlook is a double whammy for households. Not only will high inflation squeeze households’ real income growth, but it will also prevent interest rates from falling... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher inflation to hit consumers The deterioration in the inflation outlook is a double whammy for households. Not only will high inflation squeeze households’ real income growth, but it will also prevent interest rates from falling... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growing letter threat darkens growth outlook Recent increases in oil and gas prices have increased the chances that consumer price inflation will breach the 3% ceiling which would trigger another letter from the Monetary Policy Committee to the... 28th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation concerns to delay the ECB The European Central Bank’s continued hawkishness suggests that euro-zone interest rates are now unlikely to fall before the third quarter of this year at the earliest. But we still think rates will... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China growth concerns fade, but no respite on inflation Data showing that both GDP and consumer price inflation remain strong guarantee that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will remain focused on tackling rising prices. Today’s decision to raise bank... 16th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are inflation expectations really so important? Inflation expectations may not be quite as important an influence on actual inflation as the Monetary Policy Committee appears to believe. Accordingly, there is a danger that the Committee keeps... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The "wrong" type of inflation in Japan? Inflation driven solely by food and energy prices is not exactly what the Bank of Japan has been hoping for. Nonetheless, even if Japan is experiencing the “wrong” type of inflation now, the chances... 28th March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The “wrong” type of inflation in Japan? Inflation driven solely by food and energy prices is not exactly what the Bank of Japan has been hoping for. Nonetheless, even if Japan is experiencing the “wrong” type of inflation now, the chances... 28th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Commodity boom is a house of cards (Q1 2008) Headline inflation has surged again in almost all major economies. However, inflation excluding food and energy remains subdued. While this is not a good reason for complacency, it does suggest that... 27th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Letter threat an unhelpful distraction for the MPC The threat of having to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why inflation has moved more than 1% above its target could cause the MPC to focus on the near-term outlook for inflation just when... 26th March 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB highlights weaker growth prospects After leaving interest rates on hold as expected (at a mid-point of 2.75%) the Swiss National Bank stressed that it expects economic activity to slow sharply this year. While strong price pressures... 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals the possibility of a further rate rise The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold but signal that it expects to raise interest rates once more this year is likely to lead to a further strengthening of the krone. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: How to tame double-digit inflation Russian inflation has returned with a vengeance. As a result, the Central Bank (CBR) already looks certain to miss its end-year target of 8.5%. But the response of policymakers will be dictated by... 11th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hamstrung by inflation worries Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged supports the view that it will continue to loosen policy at a cautious pace while inflation concerns persist. But... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
