China Economics Update Inflation falls well short of expectations Consumer price inflation last month was well below expectations. Bank lending soared, as usual at this time of year, but the People’s Bank does seem to have had some success in slowing the pace of... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Producer Prices (Jan.) Today’s producer prices figures will add to concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, we still expect inflation to fall sharply next year. 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) The sharp increase in food prices ahead of Chinese New Year is no surprise, but evidence of rising non-food price inflation is a greater cause for concern. Still, if we are right that economic growth... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation still being driven by food and energy prices Data released this morning show that rising global commodity prices continue to be the main driver of inflation in both Brazil and Chile. But while these effects may fade over the course of 2011... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher food prices eat into payroll tax cut In light of recent increases in oil and agricultural commodity prices, we now expect CPI inflation to peak at 2.5% this summer, up from our previous forecast of 2.0%. But this is unlikely to sway the... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia steps up fight against inflation Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to raise bank reserve requirements is further evidence that inflation worries are starting to trump growth concerns. 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) The further rise in German CPI inflation in January is likely to add to the ECB’s worries about building inflationary pressures. But the chances of inflation reaching the levels seen in mid 2008, when... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Inflation fears should ease soon GDP growth has continued to slow while markets in the region have been stressed by the acceleration in inflation. We expect inflation to top out in coming months, with the peaks generally being lower... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fears of stagflation overdone Yesterday’s disappointing GDP figures re-ignited concerns about a return to so-called “stagflation” – the toxic combination of high inflation and high unemployment/weak economic growth that plagued... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will inflation ever fall back? The stubbornness of UK inflation has prompted suggestions that there has been an adverse shift in the relationship between growth and inflation and has raised concerns that the low inflation... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) Higher energy prices and some base-year effects were behind the pick-up in headline inflation in December. Disinflationary pressures from excess capacity will continue to restrain core inflation... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam set to adjust and target lower inflation Vietnam’s National Party Congress, which closed today, is the most important set-piece meeting of the Communist Party. Comments from the top officials, to no-one’s surprise, suggest that containing... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s worse than expected UK consumer prices figures will do nothing to ease concerns that the Monetary Policy Committee is neglecting its inflation-targeting remit. But we continue to think that... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Consumer price inflation probably fell in December, as food prices finally stopped rising. Non-food inflation remains low and neither capacity constraints nor monetary growth look likely to push it... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK not alone in seeing inflation fears rise Last week’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates on hold again will have done nothing to ease concerns that the Committee is allowing a serious inflation problem to... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec.) December's retail sales and consumer price reports together suggest that real consumption growth accelerated to 3.8% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.4% in the third. If our calculations are... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
