Asia Economics Update Thai rates reach their peak With today’s rate hike, we think that the Bank of Thailand has probably done enough to keep inflation in check. Rates are likely to be left on hold into 2009, but attention will gradually turn to... 27th August 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will the BRICs win the inflation battle? We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may... 20th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Will the BRICs win the inflation battle? We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may... 20th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will the BRICs win the inflation battle? We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may... 20th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Surging inflation expectations suggest next rate move is up The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations surging to record highs, and the current economic downturn expected to be relatively short-lived and shallow, we... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower food prices will help to drag inflation down next year The sharp fall in the oil price in recent weeks has overshadowed the impact that the recent easing in global wholesale food prices is likely to have on inflation. While the lower level of wholesale... 8th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower food prices will help to drag inflation down next year The sharp fall in the oil price in recent weeks has overshadowed the impact that the recent easing in global wholesale food prices is likely to have on inflation. While the lower level of wholesale... 8th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Utility hikes may mean that inflation peaks earlier The news that British Gas today became the second utility supplier to raise its prices means that inflation is likely to rise further and faster than we previously expected. But the silver lining is... 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the MPC be able to sound the all clear on inflation? It might only be a few months before the MPC can conclude that the twin threats of rising wages growth and rising core inflation are not going to materialise. We still think there is a decent chance... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A rise in core inflation may not reflect underlying price pressures The ONS measure of core CPI inflation does not exclude all elements of food and energy prices in th CPI and is therefore likely to rise alongside energy and food prices. There is a danger, then, that... 14th July 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank responds to inflation concerns The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates again today clearly shows that it remains concerned about rising inflationary pressures. This will support the Norwegian krone in the near term. 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Core inflation in the 1970s and now The current economic climate is increasingly being compared to the inflationary years of the 1970s and early 1980s. But a quick look at what actually happened back then suggests that the UK economy is... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Back to the 1970's? (Q2 2008) The resurgence of global inflation has raised fears of a return to the “stagflation” of the 1970s. However, inflation is still very low by those standards and the inflation environment is... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold; next move still likely to be a cut The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its target range for three-month interest rates on hold (at amid-point of 2.75%) was a relief amid concerns that inflation fears might force the Bank to... 19th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BoJ more sensitive than most to jump in inflation expectations The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations soaring, we believe that rates will be raised again sooner than generally anticipated and perhaps even earlier... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ more sensitive than most to jump in inflation expectations The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations soaring, we believe that rates will be raised again sooner than generally anticipated and perhaps even earlier... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
