Global Economics Update Is China exporting inflation? China’s struggle with rising prices is reverberating around the world. Domestic inflation is the highest it has been in nearly three years. Wages are increasing at a double-digit annual pace. No... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: The inflation spike starts here The pick-up in Turkish inflation to 4.3% y/y last month is only the thin end of the wedge and we expect it to rise to over 7% by Q1 2012. Against the backdrop of yet more bad news on the trade deficit... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s sharp rise in the German CPI inflation figures will do nothing to ease the ECB’s concerns over rising inflationary pressures. But the pick-up is not quite as alarming as it initially seems. 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) The pass through of higher commodity prices was behind the jump in CPI inflation, to 3.3% in March from 2.2% in February. Considering the temporary nature of these supply shocks, however, we still don... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation drop gives MPC some breathing space March’s fall in CPI inflation has given the doves on the MPC some welcome relief in the run-up to the Committee’s crucial May meeting. Granted, it is far too early to proclaim that the inflation... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another jump in Indian inflation confirms case for rate hikes Inflation data released today strengthen the case for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to continue raising rates. We expect the repo rate to be hiked in May, followed by even more tightening this year. 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Ind. Prod'n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) The pass through of higher agricultural and commodity prices continued in March, with a 0.8% m/m increase in food prices and a 5.6% m/m increase in gasoline prices leading to a 0.5% m/m increase in... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) March’s rise in headline euro-zone CPI inflation, which was down to a pick-up in core inflation, is not as alarming as it may seem. But it will do nothing to ease the ECB’s concerns about building... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Activity slows, inflation concerns remain China’s Q1 GDP data confirm that the economy has slowed, though the seasonally-adjusted figures were less enlightening than we had hoped. The continued strength of food price inflation is a concern... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Food prices probably drove headline inflation back above 5% in March, but non-food inflation still seems subdued, particularly when the impact of January’s re-weighting of the CPI basket is taken into... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgaria: Disinflationary forces to return to the fore Today’s inflation data from Bulgaria were not as bad as the market had feared. Even so, prices are still rising at their fastest pace for two years and, in the context of the currency board... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.), BRC Sales (Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) March’s drop in both inflation and consumer spending clearly relieves some of the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates soon. Although inflation is probably set to... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What will the disaster do to inflation? Japanese inflation was always likely to turn positive this year due to commodity price movements and base effects in the year-on-year comparison. The recent disaster means inflation is likely to be... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Mar.) March’s producer prices figures show that cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are continuing to build. But data on the construction sector suggest that the underlying strength of the recovery... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Still no sign of a ceasefire in Brazil's 'currency war' If recent evidence is anything to go by, Brazil’s latest effort to stem the rise in the real is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the markets. While rising inflation should mean that the... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Taking stock of Argentina's inflation problem The IMF is in Buenos Aires this week on its second technical mission to assist the development of a new inflation index. It is difficult to accurately assess the starting point for discussions, but... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
