Europe Economics Update Strong euro to add to near-term deflationary pressures The recent appreciation of the euro is yet to have had an impact on euro-zone import prices, due to the normal lags between these two variables. But it soon will. What’s more, with spare capacity... 21st July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Wage deflation is the real issue (Q2 2009) The creation of new money by central banks is a sideshow compared to the disinflationary pressures still building in the real world. In particular, the risk that falling wages will trigger a... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may have troughed Norway’s relatively mild downturn should ensure that the latest 25bp interest rate reduction by the Norges Bank is probably the last in the current cycle. But we still think that the Bank will not... 17th June 2009 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the Fed's actions eventually lead to runaway inflation? 9th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will 'sticky' wages save the euro-zone from deflation? The perceived rigidity of euro-zone labour markets will certainly not prevent a brief period of negative inflation in the region. What’s more, with wage growth probably set to drop towards zero in the... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation in Ireland - a warning sign for the euro-zone The latest Irish inflation figures revealed that core inflation tumbled deeper into negative territory in April, suggesting that the chance of a prolonged bout of negative inflation is growing. This... 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slower loan growth good for China, bad for equities April’s sharp fall in the growth of lending in China could expose the degree to which credit growth has supported equities and broader sentiment. Slower loan growth tempers concerns about asset... 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower loan growth good for China, bad for equities April’s sharp fall in the growth of lending in China could expose the degree to which credit growth has supported equities and broader sentiment. Slower loan growth tempers concerns about asset... 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates unlikely to fall much further Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Deflation and unemployment need not derail Japan's recovery The jump in Japan’s unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.8% in March (consensus 4.6%) removes some of the shine from yesterday’s better manufacturing data. What’s more, unemployment has much further to... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Deflation and unemployment need not derail Japan’s recovery The jump in Japan’s unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.8% in March (consensus 4.6%) removes some of the shine from yesterday’s better manufacturing data. What’s more, unemployment has much further to... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
