UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (February) The distinctly dovish tone of the Bank of England’s February Inflation Report begs the question of why the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did not implement a further extension of its quantitative... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation heading for record lows Russian inflation fell to its slowest rate in nearly three years in January. With the recovery set to lose steam over the coming quarters, we expect inflation to fall to record lows later this year. 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Mexican inflation about to take off? A combination of one-off factors means that Mexican inflation is likely to accelerate in the first quarter of this year. But the large amount of spare capacity that has opened up over the past... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will monetary growth fuel inflation? China’s money supply expanded rapidly last year, but its growth is already subsiding. With spare capacity still a problem, the ongoing pick-up in inflation is unlikely to last for long. 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers will look through spike in inflation The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month was due largely to one-off factors and does nothing to change our view that the aggressive interest rate hikes now priced into the market are unlikely to... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jan./Dec.) January’s flash euro-zone consumer prices figures further highlighted the distinct lack of inflation pressure in the region and offered hope that euro-zone consumers will escape the squeeze on... 29th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (1st Est. Jan.) January’s fall in German consumer price inflation confirmed that households’ real incomes are being squeezed by much less than those elsewhere by rising prices. And inflation looks set to remain very... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China overheating? Growth is strong and inflation rising but China is not overheating. Nonetheless, interest rates are so low that a small hike would have little impact on the real economy. The People’s Bank could... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone escapes inflation fears The recent sharp rise in CPI inflation in both the US and the UK has caused concern that interest rate hikes might not be far off. But euro-zone inflation has been far more subdued, challenging the... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong data strengthen case for early rate hike China’s attempt to crack down on speculative activity in its property markets does not signal that a property bubble is either inflating or about to burst. The new measures should help to tame price... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s consumer prices figures will clearly do nothing to ease the recent increase in inflation worries. But they should not throw the Monetary Policy Committee into a blind panic. 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Bal. (Nov.) & Final CPI (Dec.) November’s fall in euro-zone exports could signal that the strong euro is beginning to take its toll on exporters. Nonetheless, in Q4 at least, the external sector is likely to have continued to... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: pick-up in inflation but rate hikes not imminent Today’s inflation data from the Czech Republic should put to bed any lingering fears of a prolonged period of deflation. But with core price pressures set to remain subdued, we still think that... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s producer prices figures revealed a further pick-up in cost pressures in the industrial sector. But this is unlikely to prevent consumer price inflation from falling back sharply later on... 8th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Producer Prices (Nov.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Euro-zone producer price inflation continued to inch up in November. But it remains deep in negative territory, suggesting that pipeline inflationary pressures remain very weak and that core CPI... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s rise in euro-zone inflation reflects temporary energy effects. With economic activity still at very low levels, deflation remains a bigger risk for the region than high inflation in the... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
