China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Inflation might have risen again last month but the peak is probably not far away. 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Russia won its battle with inflation? Despite repeated warnings from Russia’s inflation hawks, price pressures in Emerging Europe’s largest economy have continued to abate. We expect disinflationary forces to dominate for a while... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer prices (May) May’s euro-zone unemployment figures highlight the growing divergences between the core and peripheral euro-zone economies and add to evidence that the latter group’s economic woes are far from over. 2nd July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Jun.) June’s euro-zone CPI data confirm that price pressures are very subdued. And while the continued fall in German unemployment brings hope of a modest consumer recovery there, it will not be strong... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (May) May’s UK consumer prices figures provided some reassurance that the MPC will be able to avoid the nightmare scenario of having to raise interest rates just as an enormous fiscal squeeze hits the... 15th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (May) May’s UK consumer prices figures provided some reassurance that the MPC will be able to avoid the nightmare scenario of having to raise interest rates just as an enormous fiscal squeeze hits the... 15th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Ind. Prod. (Apr.), Producer Prices & Infl. Exp. (May) Today’s UK data contained mixed news on the inflation outlook, with easing cost pressures contrasting with rising inflation expectations. We still place little weight on inflation expectations as an... 11th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Diminishing inflation threat should keep rates on hold Consumer price inflation has just edged above 3% but with price pressures still low and output growth already slowing, there is no pressing need to tighten policy. Indeed, we no longer expect interest... 11th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising inflation unlikely to scare MPC into rate hikes The lower path of public borrowing projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility might seem to relieve some of the pressure for an additional fiscal tightening in next week’s Budget. But we don’t... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Inflation probably rose to 3% in May, but the bigger picture is that the threat of overheating already appears to be dissipating. We now expect inflation for the year as a whole to come in below the... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone PPI (Apr.)/Spanish Unemp. & Con. Conf. (May) April’s sharp rise in euro-zone producer price inflation may prompt concerns that inflationary pressures are building. But we continue to think that deflation, rather than a surge in inflation is the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation is India's biggest threat It will probably be India’s turn on Monday to report another spectacularly strong Q1 GDP gain – we think that the economy expanded by 9.5% y/y. There is little doubt that the upswing will continue and... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Spending & CPI (Apr 10) Today’s April data on unemployment (up), household spending and prices (both down) were all worse than expected, although they do not yet make a convincing case that the recovery is faltering. 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia to keep going its own way (Q2 10) We expect the world recovery will lose momentum in 2010-11 but do not anticipate that the recent turmoil in the markets will derail the global upswing. The implication for Asia is that the regional... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German CPI (1st Est. May) German headline and core inflation remain very low and look set to fall further. With disinflationary pressures even stronger in many of the smaller euro-zone economies, deflation remains a real... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC right to be sanguine on inflation, for now Last week’s letter from Mervyn King to the new Chancellor George Osborne after inflation surprised on the upside again drew accusations that the Governor is being dangerously sanguine on the inflation... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
