Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) On the face of it, March’s sharp rise in euro-zone CPI inflation may look a little alarming. But with a fundamental lack of inflationary pressure in the economy, deflation rather than a surge in... 16th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cooling, not overheating At first glance, today’s GDP data might suggest China is overheating. However, the acceleration in y/y growth in Q1 was entirely due to weakness a year ago. Growth has continued to slow in q/q terms... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Upside inflation risks still low (even in China) (Q1 2010) Immediate fears of deflation have eased as the global economy has begun to recover. But looking beyond the headlines, underlying price pressures remain subdued and are likely to fall further. The full... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Mar.) March’s surprisingly strong rise in UK producer prices will prompt some concern that pipeline inflation pressures are building. But there are good reasons not to be too concerned. 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final GDP (Q4), Final PMIs (Mar.) & PPI (Feb.) The downward revision to Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures is a reminder of the economy’s fragility. Thankfully, March’s final PMI survey brought further evidence that the recovery resumed in Q1. But the... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Pick-up in euro-zone inflation unlikely to last March’s stronger than expected rise in CPI inflation, combined with the recent depreciation of the euro, may ignite fears that inflationary pressures in the euro-zone are beginning to build. But we... 5th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Most of the upward pressure on inflation in recent months has come from food prices. These are now stabilising and there are few signs of broader inflation pressures waiting in the wings. 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.) March’s increase in euro-zone HICP inflation related mainly to energy effects and should be short-lived. Indeed, the further increase in euro-zone unemployment in February was another sign that... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German CPI (Mar.) March’s EC business and consumer survey provides some encouragement that, for now, fiscal worries in the region are not weighing too heavily on overall sentiment towards the economy. But the surveys... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response CPI (Feb.) February’s CPI data were not quite as bad as some of the subsequent commentary has suggested. Nationwide prices did at least rise month-on-month on all the main measures. In the meantime, household... 26th March 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more cautious tone With the Norwegian economic recovery beginning to look a little more fragile, the Norges Bank has begun to strike a more cautious tone. Although the Bank is likely to raise interest rates again later... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation could undermine fiscal consolidation Worries about euro-zone fiscal plans have centred mainly on governments’ overly optimistic forecasts for real GDP growth. But weaker inflation could also pose a problem for the region’s public... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s consumer prices figures should provide some reassurance that, beneath the various special factors that have affected inflation in recent months, underlying price pressures in the UK economy... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC shouldn’t fret about inflation expectations The Monetary Policy Committee seems increasingly concerned about the risk of a rise in inflation expectations. But we think that those concerns are misguided and could lead to a policy error. 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Feb.) March’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment confirms that confidence in the economic recovery remains fairly fragile. And with euro-zone CPI inflation still very subdued, the ECB is under no... 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
