Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The pick-up in Mexican inflation from 4.2% in September to 4.3% in October probably marks the peak for this cycle. We expect it to edge down over the rest of this year and think it could reach the... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation last month will come as a welcome relief to policymakers but is unlikely to prevent interest rates from rising further over the coming months... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to remain low – but positive Inflation is at a four-year low and looks set to remain lower than we had previously anticipated. But we don’t think deflation is the threat that some believe or that policymakers should respond to... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth is slowing (but not collapsing) Global growth appears to have softened at the beginning of the fourth quarter. The stagnation in the euro-zone has continued and Japan has still not recovered from the effects of April’s consumption... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate to stay on hold until mid-2015 Against a backdrop of softer domestic growth and weakening exports, the Malaysian central bank (BNM) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today. As the accompanying statement took on a... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Significant slowdown still looks unlikely Fears that the UK’s economic recovery is rapidly losing steam appear largely overblown. Admittedly, the Markit/CIPS Composite PMI, which weights together the headline indices for the manufacturing... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Price Inflation (October) Russian inflation accelerated to a three-year high of 8.3% y/y in October and, with the lagged effects of a weaker ruble still to come through, a further rise towards 9% y/y is likely over the coming... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risk of spikes in US natural gas prices still high The recent unseasonably warm weather has given US natural gas companies additional time to boost stocks before heating demand picks up. However, the amount of gas in storage is still significantly... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Higher interest rates on the horizon in Kenya The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that a pick-up in inflation and concerns about Kenya’s large current account deficit will prompt... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis spurs central bank response Russia’s central bank had to deliver two things at today’s Board meeting in order to stem the slide in the ruble: an aggressive hike in interest rates and an immediate overhaul of the current exchange... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) With euro-zone HICP inflation still close to zero in October and the unemployment rate holding near a record high, there remains a significant risk of deflation in the single currency area. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ sets stage for further weakening of yen It always looked likely that the Bank of Japan would be forced to step up its pace of easing but the change of tack has come sooner than the market (or we) had expected. Given the recent downward... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Household Spending & Inflation (Sep.) The renewed rise in unemployment last month shows that the labour market is no longer tightening, and we think it will start to slacken in earnest soon. Meanwhile, inflation continues to slow, and... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Case for inaction remains robust The current weakness of domestic price pressures and the euro-zone’s continued malaise suggest that the MPC is likely to keep Bank Rate on hold for a few more months. But the Committee is unlikely to... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Political pressure keeping lid on QE for now The ECB seems unlikely to announce any new policies this month as it continues to purchase small quantities of covered bonds and prepares to buy asset-backed securities. With the risk of deflation... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
