China Economics Update More tightening on the way Consumer price inflation rose more than expected last month, but it continues to be solely a food price problem. Of more concern is that loan growth has not slowed, despite strong signals from the... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) The Bank of England’s November Inflation Report suggested that the door is still open for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to follow the US Fed in extending its programme of asset purchases. 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation being driven by rising food prices... for now The raft of data released over the past day or so show that inflation across Latin America is accelerating. For now, the pick-up has been driven by food prices. But with growth set to remain strong in... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) We think that consumer price inflation peaked in October. With all the recent increase in the headline rate coming from food prices, inflation is only likely to continue rising if there are further... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE2 will not lead to runaway inflation It is very easy to understand why some fear that the Fed's second-round of quantitative easing will lead to a surge in inflation. But we suspect that the ultimate impact on core inflation will be... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s UK producer prices figures won’t do a great deal to ease near-term inflation concerns. But neither should they worry the MPC too much. 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we worry about inflation expectations in Poland? There is little evidence to back up claims by some policymakers in Poland that interest rates should be raised in order to contain inflation expectations. In fact, doing so could entail some... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Early warning signs of higher inflation in 2011 The outlook for inflation in Peru is deteriorating but the policy response is not straightforward. Interest rate hikes would only serve to increase speculative inflows of ‘hot money’, while fiscal... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone unemployment and inflation data attest to the absence of price pressures in the region. As inflation drops back next year, we think the ECB is more likely to up its unconventional... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Output & CPI (Sep.) Japan's manufacturing output fell in the third quarter, reflecting both weaker exports and the expiry of government car subsidies at home. The outlook for Q4 is grim. However, other parts of the... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's cash rate still likely to move up soon Yesterday’s Q3 consumer price data from Australia were softer than the Reserve Bank (RBA) and consensus had expected. Inflation pressures are still likely to rise over the long run but the RBA would... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still on track to lift rates in early 2011 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), to no-one’s surprise, today kept policy rates unchanged at 3.0%. In coming months, we expect that the activity data will surprise on the upside while the RBNZ... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s German CPI data confirmed that, even in the euro-zone’s best-performing economy, price pressures remain very subdued. 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Easing bias in place for the foreseeable future The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meets on Thursday and will almost certainly forecast that inflation will remain well below the new informal target of 1% until at least 2012. This does not necessarily... 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey turns even more dovish The outlook for Turkey remains amongst the best in the region, but policymakers at the central bank (CBRT) are still in no mood to raise interest rates. 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth stabilises, inflation still not a threat Today's data did not show the upsurge in inflation that some had thought might have triggered this week's interest rate hikes. Q3 GDP growth too was in line with initial expectations. Instead, the... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
