US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s consumer prices data go some way to underlining that price deflation in the US economy is confined to the energy sector. That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if some of the recent fall in... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Lower commodity prices bring mixed news for EMs Recent falls in commodity prices have left some emerging market (EM) economies in a tailspin. The S&P GSCI, an index of commodity prices, has fallen by more than 20% since its June peak, largely due... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa holds rates, but signals tightening on the way The Reserve Bank of South Africa left interest rates on hold at 5.75% today, but Governor Kganyago made it fairly clear that he expects monetary policy to tighten next year. A sluggish domestic... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (November) While the flash manufacturing PMI edged lower in November, it still indicates that activity in the sector will continue to recover. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real income revival to spur recovery A combination of very low inflation, reviving growth in earnings and further robust jobs growth should ensure that households’ real disposable incomes grow in 2015 at their fastest annual rate since... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Keystone XL delayed again, but likely to be approved next year Despite rejection yesterday, the Keystone export limited (XL) pipeline is likely to be approved early next year when the Republicans take control of the Senate. Eventually this should add to the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of November will be welcomed by policymakers, not least because the headline rate fell back into the target range for the first time since... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices to tip the euro-zone into deflation The recent drop in oil prices looks set to tip euro-zone CPI inflation into negative territory over the coming months, increasing the risk of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation. 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What impact will the delay in the sales tax hike have? The direct impact of Prime Minister Abe’s decision to delay next year’s sales tax hike is to boost the outlook for growth and also for underlying inflation, though headline inflation will of course be... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The slight rise in CPI inflation in October should be a blip in its downward trend. Indeed, falling import and commodity prices look set to provide timely support to real incomes at a time when other... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely despite subsidy cuts Today’s move by Indonesia’s new president to hike fuel prices is an encouraging first step on the road to reform. Although inflation is now likely to rise sharply, any spike should prove temporary... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan rate cut not the start of aggressive easing The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 50bp to 9.5% over the weekend, having been encouraged by a recent drop in inflation. But with inflation set to rise again over the coming months... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The sharp drop in WPI inflation in October adds to evidence of fading price pressures. It also supports our long-held view that the RBI could begin to cut interest rates earlier than many seem to... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Another interest rate cut still likely in Peru Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 3.50% last night but, with economic growth still weak and inflation likely to fall back into target in the coming months, we are comfortable with our... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3), Pol. CPI (Oct.) & Turkey Current Acc. (Sep.) Russia’s economy performed better than even we had expected in Q3, but this predates the most recent slump in oil prices. We still expect the economy to slip into recession next year. Elsewhere... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
