Asia Economics Focus How useful are Asia’s manufacturing PMIs? Asia’s manufacturing PMIs are closely watched as some of the most timely gauges of the region’s economic performance. In places such as China, Korea and Taiwan, we find that the PMIs are effective... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Following a surge in industrial output and retail sales in September, we are not too worried about the small drops in October. Indeed, the labour market remains tight despite sluggish demand. However... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How widespread is the threat of deflation? The drop in global commodity prices, coupled with a slowdown in global growth, will push headline inflation rates in a number of economies into negative territory. But, other than Japan, the risk of a... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC may be resuming FX intervention There are tentative signs that the People’s Bank (PBOC) has resumed currency intervention. Foreign exchange purchases by all financial institutions, a proxy for purchases by the PBOC, turned positive... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov.) November’s fall in German inflation to a five-year low highlights the absence of price pressures in even the strongest parts of the euro-zone. And while German unemployment remains very low, this... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation peaks in Brazil and Mexico Having increased steadily over the course of this year, there are signs that inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has now peaked. Data to the middle of November suggest that it should drop back in both... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf set to resist pressure to cut oil output Comments ahead of today’s OPEC meeting, playing down calls for a cut in the cartel’s output target, suggest that the Gulf States aren’t too alarmed by the recent slide in oil prices. Indeed, Saudi... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Deflation concerns spread across the emerging world Following sharp falls in commodity prices, concerns have started to mount that parts of the emerging world are about to slip into a damaging period of deflation. Although we think that inflation is... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Retail spending picks up, but recovery uneven There has been a gradual recovery in retail spending in Emerging Asia during 2014. The top performing countries are Indonesia and Malaysia, where retail sales are expanding at a double digit pace. In... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Despite a small rise this month, small business confidence remains subdued. However, shrinking spare capacity and higher input costs point to rising price pressure. 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s central bank takes some heat out of the ruble crisis Aggressive hikes in interest rates coupled with the central bank’s decision to accelerate the move towards a fully floating currency have helped to stabilise the Russian ruble over the past week. But... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian naira weakness likely to prompt rate hike tomorrow We think that the Central Bank of Nigeria will respond to the recent slump in the naira by raising interest rates tomorrow. Our best guess is that interest rates will rise from 12.00% to 13.50%, but... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) The stronger than expected 2.3% core inflation reading in October won't change the Bank of Canada's mind that ultra low interest rates are needed to tackle the weakness in the real economy that would... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How big a threat is deflation? Sharp falls in global commodity prices have helped push inflation down across nearly all of Emerging Asia in recent months. However, while most countries in the region look set for a period of low... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack End of real wage squeeze boosts spending Prospects still look bright for further solid growth in consumer spending. Admittedly, weaker growth in house prices and the looming prospect of interest rate hikes may soon dampen consumers’ spirits... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
