Japan Economics Weekly More to the inflation story than just the core The consensus is usually right to focus on the core measures of Japan’s CPI when looking at the prospects for a permanent end to deflation and the implications for monetary policy. Nonetheless, trends... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s rise in German HICP inflation reflected a temporary boost from the energy and food components. The rate remains low, at 1.6%, and looks set to fall again in the coming months as these... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response National CPI (Oct.) The return of inflation to Japan last month was widely expected and likely to be temporary, but this does not mean it should be ignored completely. 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Consumer Price Index (Oct.) While past increases in energy prices led to a stronger than expected inflation report in October, this shock is unlikely to be sustained. The knock-on effect of lower commodity prices next year... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilts' inflation jitters will ease in time The UK gilt market appears to have suffered from a serious bout of the inflation jitters over recent weeks. Sharp rises in global commodity prices and the continued stubbornness of consumer price... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Deflation still the real danger Fears that the Fed has put the economy on the path towards rampant inflation looked even more misguided last week when it was announced that core CPI inflation fell to a record low of just 0.6% in... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by the return of "inflation" Consumer prices probably rose year-on-year in October for the first time since 2008, but this would not mark the end of deflation in any meaningful sense. Aside from the occasional spike into positive... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Housing Starts (Oct.) October's consumer price inflation figures support the recent argument made by several Fed officials, that they would have launched QE2 even if the Fed's mandate was to target price stability alone... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the latest global inflation scare justified? The markets have swung too far from worrying about deflation towards worrying about inflation. To be sure, inflation will be higher than otherwise over the next few months as a result of the recent... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Oct.) After almost completely petering out over the past few months, October's industrial production data suggest that the manufacturing recovery may be gathering momentum again, driven by demand for... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Nov.) & EZ Final CPI (Oct.) November’s rise in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that the euro-zone’s core has remained encouragingly resilient to the periphery’s troubles for now. But we still see German growth slowing... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s CPI figures could mark the start of a difficult period for the MPC. But we expect most members to hold their nerve and focus on the medium-term outlook. 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Renewed rise in inflation needn't rule out QE2 Some of the reaction to last week’s Bank of England Inflation Report - including the 10bps or so rise in bond yields - seemed a bit over the top to us. After all, the MPC’s growth and longer-term... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Why don't households fear deflation? Policy-makers and the financial markets may be focused on the risks posed by persistent deflation, but the latest surveys from Japan suggest that households there do not believe prices are falling and... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More tightening on the way Consumer price inflation rose more than expected last month, but it continues to be solely a food price problem. Of more concern is that loan growth has not slowed, despite strong signals from the... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) The Bank of England’s November Inflation Report suggested that the door is still open for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to follow the US Fed in extending its programme of asset purchases. 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
