UK Economics Update VAT inflation effects shouldn't panic the MPC Perhaps the biggest risk facing the household sector is the possibility of a near-term interest rate rise. We do not think that a modest rate rise would have a disastrous effect on household incomes... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s bigger-than-expected rise in euro-zone CPI inflation probably reflected energy and food effects. Underlying price pressures in the region remain very weak. 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall back once food spike digested The recent surge in the prices of agricultural commodities will put upward pressure on inflation well into 2011. But inflation in most major economies still looks set to peak some way below the levels... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) November inflation figures support our view that sluggish economic growth is dampening inflationary pressures. Significant excess capacity and slack in labour markets are likely to keep the underlying... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Inflation Expectations (Nov.) November’s official UK retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending relatively freely. But the combination of tax rises, high inflation and public sector job losses make for a... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Inflation Expectations (Nov.) November’s official UK retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending relatively freely. But the combination of tax rises, high inflation and public sector job losses make for a... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & Final CPI (Dec.) December’s euro-zone PMI surveys suggested that the economic recovery in the region maintained reasonable momentum towards the end of 2010. 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Nov.) Consumer price inflation remained unusually weak in November and, given the large amount of excess capacity in America's economy, we expect it to continue trending gradually lower over the next couple... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov.) The Holiday shopping season appears to have got off to a very good start, suggesting that fourth-quarter consumption growth will be strong. But without a meaningful acceleration in real income growth... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s consumer prices figures will have done little to ease concerns over the continued stubbornness of price pressures in the UK economy. 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are policymakers being complacent about inflation? Consumer price inflation increased by much more than expected in November. But recent policy moves and official statements, including that from this weekend’s high-level policy meeting, give the... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Nov.) November’s producer prices figures suggested that cost pressures in the industrial sector are still pretty strong. 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How should Russia tackle its nascent inflation problem? The pick-up in Russian inflation over the past couple of months has been driven primarily by a surge in food prices, which should be temporary in nature. Instead, the bigger risk to the inflation... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation increases, but rates still on hold Brazilian inflation rose to 5.6% y/y in November – well above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) 4.5% target. But the bulk of the pick-up was driven by food prices and with policymakers at the BCB... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation probably rose further in November, but the upward momentum appears to be fading. Weekly data show that vegetable prices have fallen in each of the last four weeks. Unless... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on the euro-zone economy suggests that the recent strength of activity in the region is doing little to raise price pressures or improve conditions in the labour market. 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
