UK Economics Focus Will inflation ever fall back? The stubbornness of UK inflation has prompted suggestions that there has been an adverse shift in the relationship between growth and inflation and has raised concerns that the low inflation... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) Higher energy prices and some base-year effects were behind the pick-up in headline inflation in December. Disinflationary pressures from excess capacity will continue to restrain core inflation... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam set to adjust and target lower inflation Vietnam’s National Party Congress, which closed today, is the most important set-piece meeting of the Communist Party. Comments from the top officials, to no-one’s surprise, suggest that containing... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s worse than expected UK consumer prices figures will do nothing to ease concerns that the Monetary Policy Committee is neglecting its inflation-targeting remit. But we continue to think that... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Consumer price inflation probably fell in December, as food prices finally stopped rising. Non-food inflation remains low and neither capacity constraints nor monetary growth look likely to push it... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK not alone in seeing inflation fears rise Last week’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates on hold again will have done nothing to ease concerns that the Committee is allowing a serious inflation problem to... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec.) December's retail sales and consumer price reports together suggest that real consumption growth accelerated to 3.8% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.4% in the third. If our calculations are... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s producer prices figures revealed that cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are continuing to intensify. But this should not prevent consumer price inflation from falling back in the... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Dec.) & Trade (Nov.) December’s final euro-zone CPI inflation figures should calm fears that underlying inflation pressures are building. But with headline CPI inflation likely to rise in early 2011, the ECB’s stance... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) & PPI (Dec.) November's trade figures support our view that annualised GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was at least 4%, better than the consensus forecast of just over 3%. Meanwhile, December's... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How will the floods in Australia affect the economy? The flooding in Queensland continues to devastate communities and businesses but it is still most likely that the impact on Australia’s economy as a whole will be relatively small and temporary... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2011 hold for Russia? With oil prices nearing $100pb, the near-term prospects for the Russian economy are looking up and the immediate challenge for 2011 will be to prevent inflation accelerating. Nonetheless, higher... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rise in euro-zone inflation to prove short-lived The euro-zone economic data released since Christmas has been fairly encouraging and suggests that, for now at least, the region continues to expand at a pretty healthy pace. But on the face of it... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the outlook for Hungarian inflation really so bad? We do not believe that the outlook for Hungarian inflation is as troubling as the National Bank now seems to think. Inflation is still above target and has been rising recent months, but the pick-up... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Three challenges for 2011 Policymakers in the region will face three challenges this year: keeping inflation under control, preventing asset price bubbles from building and managing currency appreciation. All are consequences... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Food or energy - which is the greatest inflation threat? The upward pressure on inflation this year from the recent surge in the cost of agricultural commodities will be much greater than that from the pick-up in oil prices. Fortunately from this... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read