Latin America Economics Update Making sense of Latin America’s inflation conundrum Recent data have given mixed messages on the outlook for inflation in Latin America. On the one hand, inflation seems to be firmly on a downward path in Brazil and Peru. Yet the drop in Chilean... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher inflation has made the public finances worse Today’s data from the FSA showed that banks are picking up the pace at which they are compensating consumers for mis-sold Payment Protection Insurance (PPI). While the compensation will provide a... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation drops further The drop in inflation to 6.6% y/y in January results primarily from base effects and falling food prices. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence that underlying inflationary pressure has eased for... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s drop in inflation took it another step closer to the sub-2% rates that we expect to see by the end of the year. Indeed, this time next year, Mervyn King could be getting his pen out to write... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation remained unchanged in January as a rise in housing (rent and utilities) inflation was offset by a moderation in food prices. 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to ease this year The squeeze on real pay is finally easing. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to prevent a further drop in real consumer spending this year. However, it should lay the foundation for a recovery to start... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s buoyant labour markets Asia’s rapid economic rebound following the 2008-09 global crisis has led to sharp falls in unemployment over the past couple of years. This has raised hopes that robust household spending will... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink, yet again The immense difficulties in finalising a second rescue package and debt restructuring for Greece have pushed the country right to the brink once more. Even if the policymakers manage again to step... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Jan.) Stronger monthly rises in both input and output prices in January did not prevent further falls in the annual inflation rates. And while February may see another sharp monthly rise in input prices... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) Even though Egyptian inflation fell in January, the recent slump in foreign currency reserves to dangerously low levels may leave the central bank with no choice but to hike rates next month. 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Extra £50bn unlikely to be the last of QE The MPC’s decision to increase its asset purchase programme by another £50bn was as expected and confirmed that the recent improvement in the economic data has not alleviated the need for policymakers... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The distortion caused by Chinese New Year contributed to the higher-than-expected headline consumer price inflation in January but it will also bring February’s figures down markedly. We do not... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: central bank may pause before cutting rates again Signs that Chile’s economy regained some momentum heading into 2012 should prompt the central bank (CBC) to keep rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Nevertheless, if the bright start to the year in... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Consumer price inflation was probably little changed in January but it is still likely to be much lower in a few months’ time. 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Intervention moving up the agenda The February meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board is likely to be uneventful, unless the Ministry of Finance orders another round of intervention in foreign exchange markets. If the Bank... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
