China Economics Focus Is inflation eroding China’s competitive edge? The high level of consumer price inflation in China is a poor guide to how the competitiveness of its exporters is changing. Foodstuffs apart, factory gate prices are today rising only slightly faster... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) It is just a matter of time before the recent rapid increases in agricultural commodity prices lead to higher consumer price inflation. Even though the headline CPI inflation rate edged down to 2.3%... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer prices increased by 0.4% m/m in January, as the surge in commodity prices continued to feed through. 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m increase in manufacturing output in January is actually quite encouraging, given that the already reported drop in average hours worked by manufacturing employees last month suggests the... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) February’s Bank of England Inflation Report left the outlook for UK interest rates very finely balanced. But we remain firmly of the view that the markets are currently significantly overstating the... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's inflation still warrants further tightening Yesterday’s wholesale prices data show headline inflation is falling. But inflation remains too high for comfort so we continue to expect the Reserve Bank (RBI) to raise rates by a further 50bp by mid... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s UK consumer prices figures came as something of a relief given the potential for another nasty surprise this month. Although inflation could yet rise further over the next few months, we... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation falls well short of expectations Consumer price inflation last month was well below expectations. Bank lending soared, as usual at this time of year, but the People’s Bank does seem to have had some success in slowing the pace of... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Producer Prices (Jan.) Today’s producer prices figures will add to concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, we still expect inflation to fall sharply next year. 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) The sharp increase in food prices ahead of Chinese New Year is no surprise, but evidence of rising non-food price inflation is a greater cause for concern. Still, if we are right that economic growth... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation still being driven by food and energy prices Data released this morning show that rising global commodity prices continue to be the main driver of inflation in both Brazil and Chile. But while these effects may fade over the course of 2011... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher food prices eat into payroll tax cut In light of recent increases in oil and agricultural commodity prices, we now expect CPI inflation to peak at 2.5% this summer, up from our previous forecast of 2.0%. But this is unlikely to sway the... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia steps up fight against inflation Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to raise bank reserve requirements is further evidence that inflation worries are starting to trump growth concerns. 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) The further rise in German CPI inflation in January is likely to add to the ECB’s worries about building inflationary pressures. But the chances of inflation reaching the levels seen in mid 2008, when... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Inflation fears should ease soon GDP growth has continued to slow while markets in the region have been stressed by the acceleration in inflation. We expect inflation to top out in coming months, with the peaks generally being lower... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fears of stagflation overdone Yesterday’s disappointing GDP figures re-ignited concerns about a return to so-called “stagflation” – the toxic combination of high inflation and high unemployment/weak economic growth that plagued... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
