Asia Economics Weekly India to raise repo rate despite falling inflation We expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hikes its key policy rates on Thursday. However, the spike in food prices appears to be unwinding, while recent activity figures have been weak. These... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s producer prices figures revealed another sharp rise in firms’ costs. But they also provided a bit of reassurance that consumer price inflation should still fall sharply next year. 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Retail sales slowdown highlights challenge of rebalancing With the usual volatility around Chinese New Year and revisions to the way key data are collected clouding the view, about the only clear picture that emerges from China’s latest data is that retail... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation pressures are building, but commodity shock temporary The recent pick up of commodity prices, notably food, will probably drive inflation higher than we had previously expected this year. The good news is that the effects of the commodity price shock... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation trouble underlines China’s growth failures Premier Wen Jiabao put price stability at the centre of the government’s concerns in his speech at the weekend. So here is a question for delegates to the National People’s Congress to ponder during... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Non-food inflation has continued to rise but we remain sanguine about the outlook, not least because much of the latest increase seems to be due to the introduction of new index weights. High oil... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch What goes up must come down Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb./Jan.) The latest data on the euro-zone economy brought mixed news in the form of falling unemployment and rising inflation. 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Oil prices compound inflation concerns Markets are concerned that rising oil prices will lift inflation and hit economic growth in Asia. Relative to their economies, Korea and Taiwan are the biggest net oil importers within the region but... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) The further rise in German CPI inflation in February will do nothing to ease the ECB’s worries about building inflationary pressures. But we continue to think that the pickin German inflation is... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Set for above-trend growth GDP growth across Emerging Asia has slowed, but is likely to pick up again soon. Domestic demand, trade between the emerging markets, as well as policy flexibility, will cushion the downside... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is inflation eroding China’s competitive edge? The high level of consumer price inflation in China is a poor guide to how the competitiveness of its exporters is changing. Foodstuffs apart, factory gate prices are today rising only slightly faster... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) It is just a matter of time before the recent rapid increases in agricultural commodity prices lead to higher consumer price inflation. Even though the headline CPI inflation rate edged down to 2.3%... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer prices increased by 0.4% m/m in January, as the surge in commodity prices continued to feed through. 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m increase in manufacturing output in January is actually quite encouraging, given that the already reported drop in average hours worked by manufacturing employees last month suggests the... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) February’s Bank of England Inflation Report left the outlook for UK interest rates very finely balanced. But we remain firmly of the view that the markets are currently significantly overstating the... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
