Europe Chart Pack LTRO euphoria starting to fade Recent news on the euro-zone economy has dampened hopes that that the ECB’s longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) in December and February had largely solved the euro-zone’s economic and fiscal... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia - losing its shine? Indonesia’s stock market and currency have been among the worst performing assets in Asia so far this year. The poor performance reflects worries over proposed cuts to fuel subsidies, which will... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Retail Sales (Mar./Feb.) March’s euro-zone CPI inflation data confirmed that stubbornly high inflation is adding to the squeeze on households’ purchasing power from rising unemployment and fiscal tightening. 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales jump flattered by temporary factors The surprisingly strong rise in Japanese retail sales in February largely reflects a number of temporary factors, including an extra shopping day due to the leap year and earthquake-related insurance... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: from sweet spot to tough spot? The Russian economy is in a sweet spot for now: inflation is at record lows and growth is strong. But we doubt that this will last. Indeed, the authorities are likely to find themselves in an awkward... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the external sector rescue the recovery? There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Better export growth will help bolster GDP growth We expect GDP growth to slow after the first quarter, as consumption growth fades and housing investment begins to decline. Only a pick-up in business investment growth and a positive contribution... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish retail sales data overstate consumer demand Poland is one of the few countries in Europe where consumer spending has made a significant positive contribution to growth in recent years. However, we think that actual retail sales may be growing... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly High oil prices will not lift inflation The pick-up in oil prices in recent weeks has caused some to fear that inflation in Asia will soon rise sharply. These fears are over-blown. Even if oil prices stayed at current levels, inflation... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly LTRO sparkle starting to fade Last week brought the strongest signs yet that the post-LTRO bout of optimism is starting to wear off. Hopes that the ECB’s operations would drive a pick-up in the euro-zone economy were dealt a blow... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) February's rise in the official core inflation figure, to 2.3% from 2.1%, will possibly elicit talk of higher interest rates to come. Considering the increasing slack in labour markets and moderate... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012: Not rocking the boat This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still waiting for stimulus to be felt The data for the first two months of the year were in general downbeat. Everything from imports to electricity and cement production slowed. Still, Q1 was always likely to be weak. Policy loosening... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia continues its strong start to 2012 The usual raft of monthly activity data, released earlier today, confirmed that Russia’s economy remains in a decent shape, helped by the recent rise in the oil price. As things stand, GDP seems on... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack A promising start to 2012, but will it last? Growth in emerging Asia looks to have picked up in Q1. Strength in the US is helping to offset weakness in Europe for Asia’s exporters. There are encouraging signs of domestic demand improving early... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
