Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: market tensions ease, but recession looms large The tensions in Russia’s financial markets triggered by last month’s ruble crisis seem to have eased over the past couple of weeks. But the first signs have emerged that the economy is falling into... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to focus on deflation, not politics Data last week, including the drop in HICP inflation to -0.2%, heightened the risk of a prolonged bout of deflation in the single currency area. But on the face of it at least, the escalating... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the UK experience deflation too? The halving of the oil price since the summer has already tipped the euro-zone into deflation and looks set to turn the headline inflation rate in the US and Japan negative shortly too. We still think... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves provide a further fillip to growth The boost to economic activity from the further plunge in oil prices and decline in 10-year Treasury yields since late last year will more than offset any additional drag from the further rise in the... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in December was enough to ensure that the central bank met its target for 2014 but doesn’t spell the end of the country’s inflation battle. We expect it grind lower... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Czech inflation last month, to just 0.1% y/y, was due to both base effects and the impact of lower oil prices on fuel inflation. There is a risk that the headline inflation rate... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in inflation unlikely to worry RBI Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in December as the unwinding of favourable base effects from food inflation more than offset the impact of tumbling oil prices and weak core price... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Deflation: Can "it" happen here after all? The collapse in global crude oil prices means that consumer price inflation will fall below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the next 12 months. Nevertheless, the... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Cheap oil to slash inflation and bolster growth The slump in oil prices, along with renewed concerns about Greece, have taken a toll on investor confidence in the past week or so, causing equity markets to fall and demand for safe-haven assets to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation fell for the second consecutive month in December, confirming that it has peaked. We expect the CPI rate to fall further over the coming months, and to remain close to the central... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Brazil industrial production in November leaves it on course to contract in Q4 and suggests the economy ended 2014 on a predictably weak footing. GDP is likely to have done little... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Egyptian inflation last month, which took it back into double-digits, rules out any possibility of an interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Egypt at next week’s meeting. 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation steady for now despite oil price plunge Retail fuel prices have fallen rapidly in China, as elsewhere. In December though, China’s vegetable prices rose sharply, with the result that we are unlikely to see the large fall in headline... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone deflation be good or bad? A bout of negative inflation could have some positive effects on the euro-zone economy by boosting real incomes and spending power. But the adverse effects on inflation expectations and peripheral... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
