Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation to touch record lows We think that Russian inflation will hit a record low of 5.5% next year. Nevertheless, persistent capital outflows mean that monetary easing is off the cards for now. 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tightening here to stay The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark policy rate on hold today as expected, but the crucial point is that interest rates have already been hiked, albeit via the backdoor. Tighter... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down slightly last month as a sharp drop in food inflation offset a rise in domestic goods and services inflation. 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) Although the official measure of core inflation, which dipped from 2.2% to 2.1% in October, might stay slightly above the Bank of Canada's target of 2% in the near term, this is not a big concern... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker growth to be met with policy stimulus A combination of weak growth and deepening debt crises in the G7 and softer demand from China means that the economies of Latin America are likely to slow by more than most expect over the next few... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Oct.) Headline CPI inflation is now past its peak, falling to 3.5% in October, down from a high of 3.9% in September. It should drop to about 3.0% by the end of this year and plummet to nearer 2.0% by March... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Bank of England Inflation Report clearly paved the way for a significant further extension of the MPC’s asset purchase programme. 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) It is becoming quite clear that the economy has a decent amount of momentum that should help it cope, at least for now, with any adverse effects emanating from Europe. Annualised GDP growth in the... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Fingers crossed, October’s drop in inflation should mean that we have now passed the peak in inflation. The start of 2012 should see inflation begin to fall back sharply and we think that it will be... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rising downside risks to growth in India Wholesale price data for October, released today, suggest India’s inflation rate is still not at a turning point. Meanwhile, recent evidence shows economic activity has slowed more steeply than... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation has peaked The official release of October’s inflation data this morning confirmed what yesterday’s leak from the statistics agency had suggested – Brazilian inflation has peaked. We expect it to fall back to... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s producer prices figures are likely to mark the start of a major downward trend in input price inflation and also underline the competitive pressures bearing down on manufacturers’ pricing... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Inflation collapsing but no room for near-term rate cuts Although Egyptian inflation fell to its slowest rate for 4 years in October, currency concerns continue to prevent a near-term cut in interest rates. Indeed, if there is any rate change before the end... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia is cutting rates too aggressively Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly cut its policy rate today by 50bp to 6.0%. Following a 25bp cut last month, strong third quarter GDP growth and continued rapid credit expansion, we think the central... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch What next for the Asset Purchase Program? The Bank of Japan is unlikely to make any changes to its policy stance at its November meeting next week. The two main policy options available are a further increase in the size of the Bank’s Asset... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Concerns about Mexican inflation fading, rate cuts on the way Three months after the sell-off of the peso began, there are still few signs that the weaker currency has passed through to higher inflation. Indeed, we continue to expect inflation to remain close to... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
