Canada Economic Outlook Confidence important during global slowdown Given the worsening global economic outlook and its negative implications for the export sector, confidence among domestic households and businesses will be critical to Canada's overall economic... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October's surprising retail sales, which grew by 1.0%m/m, suggest that household spending began this quarter on a strong footing. For three months in a row now retail volumes have increased strongly... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Weak start to 2012 After a run of bad data, many are now looking at prospects for 2012 with a sense of foreboding. GDP growth in Q4 may have dropped below 7% q/q in annualised terms. Monetary conditions have loosened a... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) We expect the official 'core' inflation rate, which was unchanged at 2.1% in November, to stay well within the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3% in the coming months. As the economy slows and... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update 2012 will be another year of sluggish growth We expect GDP growth of 1.5% for next year, down trivially from about 1.7% this year. Inflation should fall sharply to below 1% by year end, as commodity prices continue to drop back and the... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banks unlikely to ride to their governments’ rescue A closer look at the euro-zone policymakers’ new plan to “save the euro” has not altered our view that it will not bring the debt crisis to an end, especially since several key components of the deal... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth to disappoint in 2012 The headwinds facing the Japanese economy are more likely to grow than abate, prompting us to revise down our GDP forecasts out to 2014. A sharp slowdown in the global economy is likely to leave... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices were unchanged in November, held down by a drop back in gasoline and motor vehicle prices. The annual rate of CPI inflation fell only marginally to a still elevated 3.4%, from 3.5%... 16th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports weaken amid global slowdown Exports from the region have been weak due to lower demand from the West. However, domestic demand has so far remained fairly resilient across the region. Central banks in Australia and Thailand have... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response IP/PPI (Nov), Emp St/Phil Fed (Dec), Cur Ac (Q3) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in November is a bit worse than the 0.1% m/m fall we were expecting, but it looks like the floods in Thailand had more of an impact than we had... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns to dominate in first half of 2012 The past month has brought yet more evidence that Brazil’s economy has come rapidly off the boil. Indeed, it seems likely that the country may now, in technical terms at least, be in recession. For... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The official retail sales figures confirmed that November was a bad month for retailers and will raise concerns that spending will be soft over the festive period. 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Emp. (Q3) & HICP Inflation (Nov.) December’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI did nothing to alter our view that the region is heading into a fairly deep recession, regardless of how the debt crisis develops. 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Global slowdown will expose failure to boost consumption China’s 2008 stimulus was intended to buy time while the economy made the transition to sustainable, consumer-led growth. It hasn’t worked out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Nov.) The new annual regional data suggest that the widely-held view that London’s economy has fared better than other regions of the UK over the last couple of years is unfounded. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The GCC’s fiscal plans may prove unsustainable This year’s fiscal stimulus packages in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have increased the risk of a spending squeeze in the next 10 to 20 years. Admittedly, enormous foreign currency... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
